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Risk Spread on Municipal Bonds

RISK SPREAD ON MUNICIPAL BONDS

Long Term Perspective
The spread between the 10-year Treasury note yield and municipal bond yields is usually negative. That is, yields on Treasury securities are higher than on municipal bonds because the interest on muni-bonds is free from federal income taxes and the yield represents a tax-free yield rather than a taxable yield as it does for Treasuries and other corporate bonds. The reduced supply of Treasury long bonds beginning in 2000 led to a sharp reversal in the normal trend. (Fourth quarter figures on municipal bonds were not available at the time of this publication.)

Spread between Treasury Note and:1990s Average2000 to 2002 Average
Aaa Municipal Bond:-90 basis points-8 basis points
Aa Municipal Bond:-80 basis points-1 basis points
A Municipal Bond:-70 basis points+13 basis points
Baa Municipal Bond:+61 basis points-114 basis points

Short Term Perspective
Yields on municipal bonds came down in 2000. However, the drop in these yields was minor relative to the decline in Treasury yields. As a result, the average spread between the 10-year Treasury note and the municipal bond of various risk categories narrowed significantly and actually turned positive from 2000 through 2002. The spread is usually negative by a significant margin, but the reduced supply of long bonds coupled with an increased demand for the new 10-year Treasury benchmark led to a reversal in the normal trend. In fact, the yield on the Baa-rated muni-bond is much higher than the yield on 10-year Treasuries, and even the A bond was higher through November! December data is not yet available for municipal bonds.






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