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Expanded Definitions
Market Moving Indicators


Personal Income


Definition

Personal Income represents the income that households receive from all sources including wages and salaries, fringe benefits such as employer contributions of private pension plans, proprietors' income, income from rent, dividends and interest and transfer payments such as Social Security and unemployment compensation. Personal contributions for social insurance are subtracted from Personal Income.

Outlays (consumer spending) are divided into durable goods, nondurable goods and services. These figures are the monthly analogues to the quarterly consumption expenditures in the GDP report, available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars. Economic performance is more appropriately measured after the effects of inflation are removed.

Importance
Income is the major determinant of spending-U.S. consumers spend roughly 95 cents of each new dollar. Consumer spending accounts directly for nearly two-thirds of overall economic activity and indirectly influences capital spending, inventory investment and imports.

Interpretation
Increases (decreases) in income and consumption cause bond prices to fall (rally). As long as spending isn't inflationary, the stock market benefits because greater spending spurs corporate profits. It is worth noting that financial market participants pay somewhat less attention to this report than to retail sales which are released earlier in the month.

Changes in personal income signal changes in consumer spending. Comparing these changes indicates whether households are "overspending" and will need to slow their pace of expenditures or "underspending" and have the potential to accelerate their rate of purchases.

Personal income is a comprehensive figure, but also incorporates taxes consumers must pay. By removing personal tax payments from personal income, we are left with disposable income. This is what consumers have left to spend on goods and services. Adjusting for inflation reveals growth in real disposable income.

Frequency
Monthly.

Source
Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Availability
Usually the last week of the month.

Coverarge
Data are for the previous month. (Data for June are released in July.)

Revisions
Monthly, data for the prior three months are revised to incorporate more complete information. Annually, new seasonal adjustment factors are introduced every July. These revisions affect at least five years of data. The magnitude of the revisions is typically small.

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