Long Term Perspective
New orders for durable goods reveal demand for consumer goods such as cars and home appliances as well as investment equipment such as lathes and computers. Notice that the sharp demand for information technology in the 1990s pointedly reversed direction in 2000. A new reversal occurred in late 2001 as new orders hit bottom. Incidentally, the Census Bureau stopped publishing data on semiconductors in the durable goods and factory orders reports. Thus, information technology is missing a component that used to be included. According to the Census Bureau, chipmakers no longer were willing to contribute to this voluntary survey.

Short Term Perspective
Total durable goods orders (excluding semiconductors) rose 1.1 percent in September after a slight dip in August. As a result, orders posted a healthy 6.5 percent year-over-year gain in September. The high tech sector is performing better with information technology orders up 15.8 percent over last year's level in September. While the manufacturing sector is improving, the gains are modest.

Real GDP vs. Final Sales   •   Real Consumer Spending vs. Real Income   •   Debt Burden vs. Savings Rate

Business Fixed Investment vs. Net Cash Flow   •   New Orders   •   Housing Starts vs. Mortgage Rates

Merchandise Exports vs. Trade Weighted Dollar   •   Merchandise Imports vs. Trade Weighted Dollar