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Looking Ahead

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday     12/20/02

Looking Ahead: Week of December 23 to 27
Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Monday
Personal income is predicted to rise 0.2 percent in November after edging up 0.1 percent in the previous month. The November employment report revealed that employment and earnings growth was anemic. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.3 percent) At the same time, personal consumption expenditures are expected to post a 0.5 percent gain in November, a tad better than the 0.4 percent hike recorded in October. These figures are based on retail sales and also include spending on services, which are not included in retail sales. (Forecast range: 0.4 to 0.6 percent)

The market consensus shows that the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index should remain unchanged at 87 from the mid-month reading. This would be a modest gain relative to November when the index stood at 84.2 at month end. (Forecast range: 86 to 88)

Tuesday
Economists are predicting that durable goods orders will post a 0.8 percent hike in November, after gaining 2.4 percent in October. A rising trend in new orders would bode well for industrial production. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 2.0 percent)

Wednesday
The Econoday staff wishes one and all a very Merry Christmas!

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will drop 28,000 to 405,000 in the week ended December 21 from last week's level of 433,000. Changes in jobless claims are typically more volatile in the fall and winter because of a variety of holidays; it becomes more difficult to adjust the data for seasonal variation. (Forecast range: -38,000 to -18,000)

Friday
The market consensus shows that new home sales will remain virtually unchanged in November at a 1,000,000 unit rate. In October, the level stood at a 1,007,000 unit rate. Home sales continue to benefit from low mortgage rates. (Forecast range: 975,000 to 1,030,000 unit rate)



Markets at a Glance   •   Recap of US Markets   •   The Economy   •   The Bottom Line   •   Looking Ahead


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