Looking Ahead: Week of September 24 to September 28
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Monday
The market consensus is showing that the Conference Board's index of leading indicators could edge down 0.1 in August after rising 0.3 percent in the previous two months. While this index was decidedly down for many months, it had turned around a few months ago and perhaps shows some improvement in the manufacturing sector.

Tuesday
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is expected to drop sharply in September to a level of 106.0 from a level of 114.3. This will incorporate consumer expectations after the September 11 attack.

Existing home sales are predicted to inch down 0.2 percent in August to a 5.1.15 million-unit rate. This slight downtick would follow moderate declines of the past couple of months. Often single-family home sales move in the same direction as single-family housing starts; these had posted a 2.4 percent drop for August.

Thursday
The market consensus is looking for new jobless claims to jump sharply in the week ended September 22 to a level of 440,000. This reflects a normal rebound following a soft week of claims due to special factors.

Economists are looking for new durable goods orders to post a drop of 0.5 percent in August. Compare with the large declines of the past several months, this would be a small one.

New home sales are expected to decline more than 3.2 percent to a 920,000 unit pace in August. This would roughly correspond with the decline posted in single-family housing starts. Also, keep in mind that home sales increased in the previous two months, so the decline would come from relatively strong levels.

Friday
The Commerce Department's final revision on second quarter real GDP is not expected to be different from last month's report which showed that real GDP inched up at a 0.2 percent rate. At the same time, the GDP deflator is expected to remain unchanged at 2.2 percent for the second quarter.

The Chicago purchasing managers index (PMAC Survey) is expected to decrease in September to 41.5 percent from a level of 43.5 percent in August. This suggests that manufacturing activity continued to decline for the month. To some extent, some factory production was disrupted by the halt in the airline sector because just-in-time inventories surely does keep inventory levels lean.