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Simply Economics
Markets at a Glance
Recap of US Markets
The Economy
The Bottom Line
Looking Ahead


Looking Ahead

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday     12/1/00

Week of December 4 to December 8
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 - 20 economists each week.

Monday
Market players are looking for new home sales to decline 3.8 percent in October to a 910,000 unit rate after rising 9.2 percent in September. Even if this forecast is realized, the overall level of housing activity remains healthy by historical standards. (Forecast range: 890,000 to 940,000)

The consensus forecast is that the index of leading indicators will drop 0.2 percent in October after remaining unchanged in September. This index has drifted lower over the past few months, suggesting slower economic growth, but not outright recession. (Forecast range: -0.1 percent to -0.4 percent)

Tuesday
The consensus calls for a 3.0 percent drop in factory orders in October after increasing an average of 1.8 percent per month in the previous two months. This incorporates a drop in aircraft orders as well as declines in other core components. (Forecast range: -2.0 percent to -3.5 percent).

Wednesday
Economists are predicting nonfarm productivity will be revised lower for the third quarter to a 3.4 percent rate, down from the advance estimate that showed a 3.8 percent rate of growth. The downward revision reflects the downward revision in third quarter real GDP growth. (Forecast range: 3.2 percent to 3.8 percent) Economists expect unit labor costs will be revised up to a 3.0 percent rate from the initially reported 2.5 percent rate. (Forecast range: 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to drop 13,000 in the week ended December 2 from last week's 358,000 level. (Forecast range: -5,000 to -38,000)

Consumer installment credit is expected to expand $7.5 billion in October after gaining $6.5 billion in September. This reflects stronger motor vehicle sales during the month. (Forecast range: $5.0 to $11.7 billion)

Friday
Economists are predicting that nonfarm payroll employment will increase 135,000 in November, about the same pace as the previous month. This reflects the upward trend in new jobless claims recently. (Forecast range: 75,000 to 180,000) The market consensus calls for the civilian unemployment rate to edge up in November to 4.0 from a 3.9 percent jobless rate in October. (Forecast range: 4.0 to 4.1)

Average hourly earnings are predicted to increase 0.3 percent in November, a tick less than the previous month, but generally in the same ballpark as the past several months. (Forecast range: 0.2 percent to 0.4 percent) The average workweek is expected to remain unchanged at 34.3 in November. (Forecast range: 34.2 to 34.4 hours)



Markets at a Glance   •   Recap of US Markets   •   The Economy   •   The Bottom Line   •   Looking Ahead

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