Looking Ahead: Week of December 3 to December 7
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Monday
Economists are predicting that personal income will edge up a meager 0.1 percent in October after remaining unchanged for the past two months. Income growth is curtailed by declines in employment. (Forecast range: -0.5 to +0.3 percent) At the same time, personal consumption expenditures are expected to jump 2.3 percent due to a surge in motor vehicle sales. The gain is based on the retail sales report but also incorporates spending on services, and this tends to dampen outsized gains seen in retail sales. (Forecast range: 1.4 to 3.1 percent)

The NAPM survey is expected to increase modestly to 41 percent in November from a level of 39.8 percent in October. Keep in mind that any level below 50 percent still represents a contracting manufacturing sector. (Forecast range: 39 to 44 percent)

The market consensus is looking for construction expenditures to post a decline of 0.5 percent in October, nearly matching the 0.4 percent drop posted in September. This reflects declines in nonresidential investment spending which are not matched by corresponding gains in the residential market. (Forecast range: -1.0 to 0.0 percent)

Thursday
The market consensus is looking for new jobless claims to decrease 18,000 to 470,000 in the week ended December 1 from last week's level of 488,000. The holiday season causes new claims to be more volatile than normal in November and December. (Forecast range: -48,000 to +7,000)

Nonfarm business productivity should be revised down to a 2.1 percent rate from the initial estimate of 2.7 percent. This reflects the weaker GDP estimate for the third quarter. (Forecast range: 1.5 to 2.6 percent) At the same time, unit labor costs are predicted to increase at a 2.4 percent rate as well, up from the initial estimate of 1.8 percent. (Forecast range: 1.6 to 3.0 percent)

Economists are predicting that factory orders will record an increase of 7.0 percent in October after declining 5.8 percent in the previous month. Even with the expected surge in new orders, this sector is so depressed that it is a drop in the bucket to what's needed to get industrial production moving upwards again. (Forecast range: 6.0 to 10.0 percent)

Friday
The market consensus is looking for nonfarm payroll employment to post a decline of 200,000 in November, less than the 415,000 drop reported last month. (Forecast range: -315,000 to -125,000) A smaller decline in factory payrolls relative to last month will help the overall decline from deepening. The civilian unemployment rate is expected to climb to 5.6 percent in November from a level of 5.4 percent in October. Many economists are looking for this rate to top 6 percent in 2002. (Forecast range: 5.5 to 5.7 percent)

Average hourly earnings are predicted to rise 0.2 percent in November, a bit higher than last month, but still showing slower growth than the average of the past year. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.3 percent) The average workweek is expected to remain unchanged at 34 hours. (Forecast range: 33.9 to 34.1)

The University of Michigan's advance look at consumer sentiment suggests an up tick to 84.5 in early December from 83.9 in November. (Forecast range: 82 to 85.4 percent)

Economists are predicting that consumer installment credit will expand $7.5 billion in October, twice as fast as the September gain. This is mainly due to the surge in motor vehicle sales for the month. (Forecast range: $-2.0 to +15.0 Billion)