By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday
11/30/01

The National Bureau of Economic Research announced on Monday that March 2001 was the peak of the previous expansion. The news didn't take anyone by surprise. Some economists questioned the NBER decision that showed the beginning of recession in April, but the official arbiter of business cycles felt that March marked the peak of nonfarm payroll employment and it would serve as a good turning point. Market players are less concerned with the beginning of the recession and more focused on its end. Forecasts range anywhere from early in the first quarter to as late as the third quarter of 2002. The week's economic data didn't reveal anything new about the economy, nor did it help to determine when the recession would bottom out.