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Looking Ahead

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday     11/22/02

Looking Ahead: Week of November 25 to 29
Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Monday
Existing home sales are expected to remain unchanged in October at a 5.40 million-unit rate after rising 1.9 percent in September. There is no question that the housing market remains relatively healthy. (Forecast range: 5.35 to 5.60 million-unit rate)

Tuesday
Economists are predicting that the Commerce Department will revise up third quarter GDP to show a 3.9 percent growth rate, from the initial estimate of 3.1 percent. (Forecast range: 3.4 to 4.0 percent) The GDP deflator is also likely to remain near its advance estimate of 1.1 percent.

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is expected to increase sharply to 86.5 in November from the anemic October level of 79.4. Particular levels of confidence are not necessarily associated with specific spending levels, but it is useful to note trends. (Forecast range: 84 to 92)

The market consensus shows that new home sales are likely to drop 3 percent in October, to a level of 990,000. New home sales have been reaching new highs in the past few months, so a pullback would not mean a capitulation for the housing market, just a respite. (Forecast range: 960,000 to 1,010,000-unit rate)

Wednesday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will increase 9,000 to 385,000 in the week ended November 23 from last week's level of 376,000. Changes in jobless claims are typically more volatile in the fall because of a variety of holidays; it becomes more difficult to adjust the data for seasonal variation. (Forecast range: -6,000 to +19,000)

Personal income is estimated to post a 0.1 percent rise in October, slightly less than last month's 0.4 percent hike. The sluggish rise in hours and earnings point to this modest gain. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.3 percent) At the same time, personal consumption expenditures are also predicted to increase 0.3 percent for the month, reversing much of last month's drop. A sluggish auto market kept down motor vehicle sales, but non-auto retail sales posted a healthy gain. (Forecast: 0.2 to 0.5 percent)

The market consensus shows that durable goods new orders jumped 1.5 percent in October after plunging 4.9 percent in September. Aside from aircraft orders, it is likely that core components such as metals and machinery posted at least modest gains for the month. (Forecast range: 0.0 to +3.5 percent)

According to economic forecasts, the NAPM-Chicago should rise to 48.5 in November from a level of 45.9 in October. Even with an upward trend, the index still points to a contracting manufacturing sector in this region. (Forecast range: 47 to 51)

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is likely to remain unchanged at the end of the month, relative to the mid-month reading of 85. This would be a healthy rise from October's level of 80.6. (Forecast range: 85 to 88.5)



Markets at a Glance   •   Recap of US Markets   •   The Economy   •   The Bottom Line   •   Looking Ahead


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