Looking Ahead: Week of November 18 to 22
Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Tuesday
The consumer price index is expected to inch up 0.3 percent in October, faster than the more modest pace of the past few months. This is due to primarily to higher energy prices, although food prices could also shoot up as they did in the PPI. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.4 percent) Excluding food and energy prices, the CPI should rise 0.2 percent for the month. This would be in line with the recent average. Auto prices are not likely to post increases as large as the PPI since the measurement methods differ slightly. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.2 percent)

Economists are predicting that the international trade balance on goods and services will narrow modestly in September to $37.1 billion from the August shortfall of $38.5 billion. Keep in mind that the West Coast dockworkers problems will affect data through at least October. (Forecast range: $-39.2 to $-32.3 billion)

Wednesday
The market consensus shows that housing starts are likely to drop 6.7 percent in October, to a level of 1.72 million units. Keep in mind that September starts surged to their highest level since 1986! (Forecast range: 1.68 to 1.79 million-unit rate)

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will increase 7,000 in the week ended November 16 from last week's level of 388,000. Changes in jobless claims are typically more volatile in the fall because of a variety of holidays; it becomes more difficult to adjust the data for seasonal variation. (Forecast range: +2,000 to +22,000)

The market consensus shows that the index of leading indicators fell 0.1 percent in October after declining in the past several months. Positive forces include a drop in new jobless claims, real money supply and the spread on the 10-year Treasury less the federal funds rate. Negative forces include vendor performance, stock prices, and consumer expectations. The factory workweek was unchanged; data is not yet available on building permits and manufacturing new orders. (Forecast range: -0.2 to 0.0 percent)

The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is estimated to record a level of 0.0 in October, an improvement from the -13.1 level posted in September. Any level below zero represents a contracting manufacturing sector (Forecast range: -15.0 to +8.0)

Economists are looking for the Treasury to report a budget deficit of $52.5 billion in October, the first month of the 2003 fiscal year. October typically sees a deficit, but if this forecast were realized, it would be the largest monthly deficit ever recorded for the month of October. (Forecast range: $-54 to $-39 billion)