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The Bottom Line

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday     11/1/02

The economic news was unforgiving. While third quarter real GDP growth was decent, it was soft by recovery standards. The bulk of the growth came from the consumer sector; analysts are not sure consumers will be able to follow through to such an extent in the fourth quarter.

The October employment situation was simply uninspiring. Upward revisions to previous months' figures made the October decline palatable, barely. The report suggests that personal income growth will be meager for the month and industrial production will probably decline for the third straight month.

This week's set of news has revived the prospects for a Federal Reserve rate cut at the November 6 FOMC meeting. Some economists are going so far as to suggest the possibility of a 50 basis point cut instead of the more usual 25 basis point move.

As if the FOMC meeting weren't enough for market players to consider next week, many financial market participants are concerned about election results. (The Tuesday election led to a Wednesday FOMC meeting.) The balance between Republicans and Democrats will have implications for future fiscal policy.

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Markets at a Glance   •   Recap of US Markets   •   The Economy   •   The Bottom Line   •   Looking Ahead


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