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Recap of US Markets
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Recap of US Market

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday     10/11/02

New lows - and a reversal
There is no question that the uncertainty of war continues to dampen demand for equities, but the reopening of West Coast docks did turn market sentiment around. At least for the moment. After hitting new cyclical lows on Wednesday, share prices rallied sharply Thursday and Friday on positive earnings news. For the first time in eight weeks, major stock market indexes posted week-to-week gains. (Only the Russell 2000 was down from last week.) No one is calling an end to the bear market. After all, one week doesn't make a trend. But even momentary relief from pain feels good.


Following equities
The chart below shows the level of interest rates over the past four weeks for the 2-year Treasury note. If we left off the tick marks for the interest rate level and we deleted the title of the chart, this very same pattern could be used to depict the Dow Jones Industrial Average! The bond market has done a remarkable job of mirroring the equity market lately. Indeed, Wednesday's low yield of 1.66 percent on the 2-year note (October 9) was the same day that the Dow (and all the rest of the stock market indexes) fell to their lowest levels in several years. As the Dow and other market indexes recovered sharply on Thursday and Friday this week, Treasury yields rose likewise (and prices fell).


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Markets at a Glance   •   Recap of US Markets   •   The Economy   •   The Bottom Line   •   Looking Ahead


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