Looking Ahead: Week of October 14 to October 18
Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Tuesday
Business inventories are expected to inch up 0.2 percent in August, after gaining 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing inventories were unchanged and wholesale trade inventories rose 0.2 percent for the month. Economists are looking for a rise in retail trade inventories as well. (Forecast range: -0.3 to 0.3 percent)

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will increase 26,000 in the week ended October 12 from last week's level of 384,000. Generally, economists associate levels below 400,000 as consistent with moderate gains in nonfarm payrolls. The 400,000+ level seemed to hurt September payrolls; October is not getting off to a good start. (Forecast range: -14,000 to +37,000)

The market consensus is calling for a 2.5 percent rise in housing starts to a 1.65 million-unit rate in September. This would mark the first rise after three monthly declines. Mortgage rates continue to head down, though, and this bodes well for housing activity. (Forecast range: 1.58 to 1.65 million-unit rate)

The index of industrial production is expected to inch up 0.1 percent in September after declining 0.3 percent in August. Factory payrolls were down again, but the workweek was unchanged. (Forecast range: -0.2 to +0.2 percent) At the same time, the capacity utilization rate is expected to remain unchanged at 76 percent. The two series tend to move in tandem. (Forecast range: 75.7 to 76.1 percent)

Economists are predicting that the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey will edge up slightly in October to a level of 2.5, from September's level of 2.3. Any index level above zero suggests that the manufacturing sector is expanding. However, a level this close to zero does not point to healthy manufacturing activity. (Forecast range: 1.0 to 5.0)

Friday
The international trade deficit on goods and services is expected to widen to $35 billion in August from July's shortfall of $34.6 billion. Economists believe that both imports and exports will rise during the month, but imports are predicted to post a larger gain. The slowdown by longshoremen likely affected trade data for the month; these figures may be skewed for at least three or four more months. (Forecast range: $-37.0 to $-33.7 billion)

Economists are predicting that the consumer price index will post a 0.2 percent hike in September, after gaining 0.3 percent in August. Energy prices were likely higher for the month, although food prices could have posted a drop as they did in the PPI. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.3 percent) Excluding food and energy, the CPI is expected to also rise 0.2 percent for the month after recording a 0.3 percent gain in the previous month. Inflation remains tame. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.3 percent)