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Economic status quo; momentary relief for equities

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday
October 11, 2002




Economic indicators were sparse this week but key retail sales figures for September were in line with expectations. Consumer sentiment weakened in early October, but markets are learning to ignore these figures since they aren't strongly correlated to monthly consumer spending. Early in the week, President Bush invoked the Taft-Hartley act to force open West Coast ports. Longshoremen are scheduled to work for the next 80 days in a "cooling off" period for management and workers. Historically, "cooling off" periods don't cool off anyone, but at least docks are now open and busy again. Even though longshoremen are back to work, there is no question that October economic figures will be weakened by the lockout, including industrial production, retail sales and international trade. In the meantime, the end of the lockout sparked a rally in the equity market at mid-week that continued through week's end.

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