Looking Ahead: Week of October 15 to October 19
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Monday
The market consensus is looking for business inventories to decrease 0.3 percent in August, continuing the declines of the past several months. The inventory declines of the recent months suggest that the inventory correction may soon be coming to an end. (Forecast range: -0.2 to -0.4 percent)

Tuesday
Economists expect that industrial production will post a drop of 0.8 percent for the month of September, in line with the August decline. This is based on the sharp drop in factory payrolls coupled with the decrease in the factory workweek seen in the September employment situation. (Forecast range: -0.5 to -1.0 percent) At the same time, the capacity utilization rate is expected to drop to 75.3 percent from a level of 76.2 percent in August.

Wednesday
The market consensus shows that housing starts are predicted to decrease 1.8 percent in September to a 1.50 million-unit rate. Even with lower mortgage rates, greater uncertainty probably put a damper on construction during the month. (Forecast range: 1.45 to 1.55 million-unit rate)

Thursday
The market consensus is looking for new jobless claims to increase 27,000 in the week ended October 13 from last week's level of 468,000. (Forecast range: -3,000 to +57,000)

The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is expected to decrease further to -20 in October from September's level of -7.3. Any level below zero represents a contracting manufacturing sector. (Forecast range: -25.0 to -10.0)

Friday
The international trade balance on goods and services is expected to narrow a tad in August to $-28.6 billion from the July pace of $-28.8 billion. This reflects slight dips in both imports and exports. (Forecast range: $-29.8 to $-27.9 billion)

Economists are predicting the consumer price index will edge up 0.3 percent in September after rising 0.1 percent in August. (Forecast range: -0.1 to +0.6 percent) Excluding food and energy prices, the CPI is expected to rise 0.2 percent. This would be in line with gains of the past few months. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.3 percent)