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Looking Ahead


Looking Ahead

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday     10/4/02

Looking Ahead: Week of October 7 to October 11
Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Monday
Consumer installment credit is expected to expand by $11.0 billion in August, about the same pace as the previous month. The consensus forecast may be a bit cautious since August saw a tremendous surge in auto sales - which were likely financed. (Forecast range: $8.5 to 14.0 billion)

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will decrease 2,000 in the week ended October 5 from last week's level of 417,000. Generally, economists associate levels below 400,000 as consistent with moderate gains in nonfarm payrolls. The 400,000+ level seemed to hurt September payrolls; October is not getting off to a good start. (Forecast range: -52,000 to +3,000)

Friday
Retail sales are expected to decrease 0.9 percent in September, just about reversing last month's 0.8 percent gain. Motor vehicle sales plunged in September and this will certainly dampen total sales. (Forecast range: -1.6 to +0.6 percent) Excluding autos, retail sales are predicted to inch up 0.2 percent in September, a smaller rise than posted in August. Perhaps if consumers weren't spending their hard-earned money on cars and minivans, they were at the mall? (Forecast range: -0.4 to +0.4 percent)

Economists are predicting that the producer price index will post a 0.2 percent hike in September, after remaining unchanged in August. Energy prices were likely higher for the month. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.3 percent) Excluding food and energy, the PPI is expected to inch up 0.1 percent for the month after recording declines in the two previous months. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.3 percent)

The market consensus calls for another drop in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. In early October, the index is expected to decline to 85.5 from a level of 86.1 in September. (Forecast range: 84 to 88.5)



Markets at a Glance   •   Recap of US Markets   •   The Economy   •   The Bottom Line   •   Looking Ahead


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