Looking Ahead: Week of September 23 to September 27
Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Monday
The index of leading indicators is expected to edge down 0.1 percent in August, after posting declines in each of the two previous months. While the recent declines in this index are consistent with soggy growth, the index is not pointing to a double-dip recession at this time. (Forecast range: -0.2 to 0.1 percent)

Tuesday
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index is predicted to decrease slightly in September to a level of 92.0 from the August level of 93.5. Consumer sentiment is likely dipping because the labor market situation has not improved lately. (Forecast range: 89.0 to 98.0)

Market players expect that the federal funds rate target will remain unchanged at 1.75 percent and the discount rate will remain unchanged at 1.25 percent after Tuesday's FOMC meeting. While a couple of Wall Street economists are calling for a rate drop later this year, the majority of economists expect that the next Fed move will be up - sometime in 2003.

Wednesday
The market consensus shows that existing home sales will edge up 2.3 percent in August to a 5.45 million-unit rate despite the drop in housing starts. While single family starts and single family home sales often move in tandem, it is possible that record low mortgage rates are still enticing buyers. (Forecast range: 5.30 to 5.65 million-unit rate)

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will decrease 4,000 in the week ended September 21 from last week's level of 424,000. Generally, economists associate levels below 400,000 as consistent with moderate gains in nonfarm payrolls. In the past several weeks, claims have stubbornly remained above 400,000; this doesn't bode well for September employment. (Forecast range: -24,000 to +16,000)

Durable goods new orders are predicted to drop 3.0 percent in August, reversing at least part of July's 8.7 percent gain. This largely reflects declines in transportation orders. Core components are expected to show meager improvement. (Forecast range: -4.5 to +0.4percent)

The market consensus calls for a 3.6 percent drop in new home sales to a 980,000-unit rate in August. The drop is not particularly meaningful given that July reached an all-time record high in the history of the series. But, market players are worried that home sales may start to falter in coming months. (Forecast range: 950,000 to 1,025,000-unit rate)

Friday
Economists are predicting that second quarter real GDP growth will not be revised from its 1.1 percent pace. Second revisions are typically minor where some of the components are revised but the total growth rate is often unchanged. (Forecast range: 1.0 to 1.3 percent) The GDP price deflator is also expected to remain unchanged at a 1.1 percent rate for the second quarter.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is not expected to show much change from the mid-month estimate. Economists are predicting a level of 86 percent for September, down slightly from the August average of 87.6. (Forecast range: 85.0 to 86.5)