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Looking Ahead


Looking Ahead

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday     9/6/02

Looking Ahead: Week of September 9 to September 13
Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Monday
Consumer installment credit is expected to expand $9.0 billion in July, slightly higher than June's $8.4 billion gain. Motor vehicle sales rose during the month, helping to boost credit demand. (Forecast range: $4.7 to $12.0 billion)

Wednesday
The Beige Book will be released at Noon on Wednesday instead of the usual 2:00 PM because the bond market is scheduled for an early close. Market players will be looking for signs of improvement in retail sales, production and employment in this anecdotal report.

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will decrease 3,000 in the week ended September 7 from last week's level of 403,000. Generally, economists associate levels below 400,000 as consistent with moderate gains in nonfarm payrolls. (Forecast range: -13,000 to +5,000)

Friday
Retail sales are expected to post a 0.6 percent gain in August after jumping 1.2 percent in July. Even though motor vehicle sales increased sharply during the month, the seasonal factors are not always similar between unit sales and retail sales. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 1.1 percent) Excluding auto dealers, retail sales are predicted to rise a modest 0.2 percent in August, about in line with July's increase. (Forecast range: -0.4 to +0.4 percent)

The market consensus is calling for a 0.2 percent rise in the producer price index in August. This is partly from higher energy prices. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.3 percent) Excluding food and energy, the PPI should inch up 0.1 percent for the month. Both the total and core PPI would be up from July, which had posted declines for the month. Nevertheless, inflation remains subdued. (Forecast range: 0.0 to +0.2 percent)

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is expected to remain virtually unchanged (inching up to 88.0) from August's final level of 87.9. (Forecast range: 86 to 90)



Markets at a Glance   •   Recap of US Markets   •   The Economy   •   The Bottom Line   •   Looking Ahead


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