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Looking Ahead


Looking Ahead

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday     8/16/02

Looking Ahead: Week of August 19 to August 23
Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Monday
Economists are predicting that the index of leading indicators will post a drop of 0.4 percent in July after remaining unchanged in June. Several components should contribute to the decline, including stock prices, consumer sentiment, and the factory workweek. This report will also include annual revisions. (Forecast range: -0.2 to -0.5 percent)

Tuesday
The international trade deficit on goods and services is expected to narrow marginally in June to $37.3 billion after May's $37.6 billion shortfall. Economists believe that oil imports were tame for the month and Boeing shipments increased. (Forecast range: $-26.5 to -38.5 billion)

The market consensus shows a federal budget deficit of $30 billion for the month of July. In the two previous years, a slight surplus was recorded during the month, however the historical pattern shows budget deficits of roughly $22 billion for the month of July.

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will increase 2,000 in the week ended August 17 from last week's level of 388,000. Generally, economists associate levels below 400,000 as consistent with moderate gains in nonfarm payrolls. (Forecast range: -13,000 to +2,000)



Markets at a Glance   •   Recap of US Markets   •   The Economy   •   The Bottom Line   •   Looking Ahead


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