Looking Ahead: Week of August 12 to August 16
Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Tuesday
Economists are predicting that retail sales will post a rise of 1.3 percent in July after an equally strong 1.1 percent gain in June. A spurt in motor vehicle sales will help lift total spending. (Forecast range: 0.4 to 1.5 percent) Excluding autos, economists are predicting a modest 0.3 percent gain in retail sales, no doubt influenced by the soggy weekly and monthly chain store sales data. (Forecast range: 0.0 to +0.4 percent)

The FOMC meeting will have all seven seats of the Federal Reserve Board filled on Tuesday for the first time since 1998. Two new governors were confirmed by the Senate and sworn in by the Fed chairman early this month. Ben Bernanke and Donald Kohn will be voting at their first meeting. It won't be Mr. Kohn's first meeting in attendance as he was a former Fed staffer. The market consensus is calling for no change in the federal funds rate (currently 1.75 percent) or the discount rate (currently 1.25 percent). Market players will be on pins and needles waiting for the post-meeting statement at roughly 2:15 pm.

Wednesday
Business inventories are expected to inch up 0.1 percent in June after rising 0.2 percent in May. Rising inventories will help boost industrial production in coming months. (Forecast range: 0.0 to +0.2 percent)

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will remain unchanged in the week ended August 10 from last week's level of 376,000. Generally, economists associate levels below 400,000 as consistent with moderate gains in nonfarm payrolls. (Forecast range: -1,000 to +4,000)

The market consensus shows that the index of industrial production should edge down 0.1 percent in July after rising 0.8 percent in June. This reflects the soggy employment report with declines in the number of hours worked and employment at a standstill. (Forecast range: -0.4 to +0.4 percent) The capacity utilization rate is predicted to edge down a tick to 76 percent in July. (Forecast range: 75.7 to 76.3 percent)

Market players are looking for a modest rise in the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey to 9.0 in August from a level of 6.6 in July. Any level above zero indicates that manufacturing activity is still rising. (Forecast range: 4.0 to 10.0)

Friday
Economists are predicting that the consumer price index will post a rise of 0.2 percent July, a bit faster than the May and June rates. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.3 percent) Excluding food and energy prices, the CPI is expected to also post a 0.2 percent hike. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.3 percent) These figures are not as friendly as the PPI, but still represent a stable inflation environment.

Housing starts are predicted to increase modestly to a 1.68 million-unit rate in July. While down from the heady pace posted in May, it nevertheless represents a robust housing market. (Forecast range: 1.60 to 1.70 million-unit rate) The housing sector has been a major pillar of growth in this economy; a significant moderation would worry market players.

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is expected to post a modest rise in the early part of August from the July level of 88.1 to a level of 89.5. While the July decline was significant, the long term trend still shows that consumer sentiment is as strong as it was in mid to late 1990s.