Looking Ahead: Week of August 13 to August 17
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Tuesday
Economists are looking for retail sales to edge down 0.2 percent in July after inching up 0.2 percent in June. This reflects the decline in motor vehicle sales for the month. (Forecast range: -0.8 to 0.2 percent) Non-auto retail sales are expected to edge up 0.1 percent, not even reversing last month's 0.2 percent drop. The BTM weekly chain store index showed that store sales were down in two of the four weeks in July pointing to anemic consumer demand. (Forecast range: -0.4 to 0.5 percent)

Wednesday
Business inventories are expected to decline 0.3 percent in June after remaining unchanged in May. As the inventory correction winds down, it will eventually set the stage for increases in industrial production. (Forecast range: -0.5 to 0.1 percent)

The consensus forecast shows that the index of industrial production is predicted to drop 0.2 percent in July, less than the 0.7 percent drop posted in June. Declining factory orders don't support production increases yet. (Forecast range: -0.3 to 0.2 percent) As a result, the capacity utilization rate is expected to decline to 76.7 percent for the month from a level of 77 percent in June. (Forecast range: 76.5 to 77 percent)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to rise 15,000 in the week ended August 11 from last week's 385,000 level. (Forecast range: 5,000 to 15,000)

Economists are predicting that the consumer price index will edge down 0.1 in July after rising 0.2 percent last month. The magnitude of the decline in energy prices seen in the July PPI is not likely to be matched in the CPI. However, some of the drop in food prices could spill over. (Forecast range: -0.3 to 0.2 percent) Excluding food and energy prices, the CPI is expected to rise 0.2 percent in July, on par with the average of the past few months. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.3 percent)

Housing starts should decline 2.0 percent in July to a 1.625 million-unit rate. Even with a slight decline in starts, the overall pace of housing construction remains healthy. (Forecast range: 1.58 to 1.68 million-unit rate)

Market players are looking for the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey to decline at a lower rate showing a level of -10.0 in August compared with a level of -12.2 in July. In any case, this still represents a contracting manufacturing sector in this Fed district. (Forecast range: -2.0 to -15.0)

Friday
The international trade deficit on goods and services is expected to widen a bit in June to $29.5 billion from a shortfall of $28.3 billion in May. This reflects a drop in exports, but no change in imports. (Forecast range: $-27.5 to $-32.0 billion)

The University of Michigan's sentiment survey for August is expected to edge down to 92.0 from a level of 92.4 in July. While consumers may not be getting more optimistic about the economy, at least they aren't becoming more pessimistic either! (Forecast range: 91.5 to 93.0)