Looking Ahead: Week of July 23 to July 27
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Wednesday
The consensus forecast shows a 1.3 percent drop in existing home sales in June to a 5.30 million-unit rate. If this forecast were realized, it would reverse only about half of last month's gain. Despite the fact that mortgage rates haven't come down as quickly as the federal funds rate target, housing activity has remained strong even with weakness in other sector of the economy. (Forecast range: 5.15 to 5.32 million-unit rate)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to decrease 4,000 in the week ended July 21 from last week's 414,000 level. (Forecast range: -24,000 to 14,000)

The employment cost index is expected to increase 1.0 percent in the three months ending June after recording a 1.1 percent gain in the first quarter. A 1 percent rise in the quarterly level would translate into a year-over-year gain of 4 percent in this index, not very different from the 4.1 percent increases posted in the two previous quarters. (Forecast range: 0.9 to 12 percent)

The market consensus shows that new orders for durable goods are expected to decline 1.4 percent in June, reversing about one-half of May's 3 percent hike. This doesn't necessarily suggest that manufacturing activity is staging a rebound, but perhaps is showing some signs of bottoming out. (Forecast range: -2.9 to 0.5 percent)

Friday
Economists are predicting that real GDP will rise at a meager 1.0 percent rate in the second quarter, nearly the same as the modest 1.1 percent average growth posted in the two previous quarters. Technically, two growth quarters are required for the economy to be classified as recessionary. With average growth running near 1 percent for three straight quarters, it certainly can be classified as a growth recession. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 1.5 percent) Real final sales are expected to increase at a 0.6 percent rate. When final sales grow less than GDP, as predicted, it means that inventories are being accumulated. (0.2 to 1.8 percent) The price deflator is predicted to grow at a 2.4 percent rate in the second quarter, less than the 3.2 percent rate posted in the first quarter. This primarily reflects better news on the energy front. (Forecast range: 2.1 to 3.2 percent) Just a reminder: this GDP release incorporates annual benchmark revisions, so can change history, and make us rethink our view of the past year.

New homes sales are expected to edge down 0.3 percent in to a 925,000-unit rate. This reflects relatively healthy housing activity despite weakness in other sectors of the economy and without the benefit of lower mortgage rates in the past three months. (Forecast range: 885,000 to 935,000-unit rate)