Looking Ahead: Week of July 15 to July 19
Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Monday
Economists are expecting business inventories to post a 0.1 percent drop for the month of May, a bit smaller than the April decline. Wholesale trade inventories inched up in May, but manufacturing inventories decreased 0.4 percent. Retail inventories had edged up a tick in April, thanks to rising stocks at auto dealers. (Forecast range: -0.2 to +0.1 percent)

Tuesday
The index of industrial production is expected to post a 0.5 percent gain in July, better than the monthly gains recorded in the past couple of months. This is partly based on the improved number of hours worked in manufacturing (as released in the June employment report) and the sharp spurt in the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey for June. (Forecast range: 0.3 to 0.8 percent) At the same time, the capacity utilization rate is predicted to rise to 75.8 percent in June, from a May level of 75.5 percent. (Forecast range: 75.7 to 76.0 percent)

Fed chairman Alan Greenspan is scheduled to testify before the Senate Banking Committee on monetary policy. He hasn't spoken since the FOMC meeting and his words will garner much attention.

Wednesday
The market consensus is calling for a 3.3 percent drop in housing starts to a 1.675 million-unit rate. Even with the expected decline, housing activity remains very strong, particularly after the 11.6 percent spurt in housing starts recorded in May. The housing market is benefiting by the continued low level of mortgage rates. (Forecast range: 1.62 to 1.78 million-unit rate)

Fed chairman Alan Greenspan is scheduled to testify before the House Committee on Financial Services on monetary policy. The prepared remarks will probably be identical to those he delivers on Tuesday, but the question and answer session could be different.

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will fall 13,000 in the week ended July 13 from last week's level of 403,000. Generally, economists associate levels below 400,000 as consistent with moderate gains in nonfarm payrolls. (Forecast range: -12,000 to +18,000)

The market consensus shows that the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is expected to decline to 17.5 in July from a level of 22.2 in June. Any level above zero means that the manufacturing sector is expanding in this district. (Forecast range: 18 to 22.8)

The index of leading indicators is predicted to remain unchanged in June after posting a 0.4 percent rise in May. This index has generally been rising over the past several months and continues to point to a slow recovery. (Forecast range: -0.1 to +0.1 percent)

Friday
Economists are looking for a 0.2 percent rise in the consumer price index for the month of June; in May, the CPI was unchanged. Energy prices are no longer declining. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.2 percent) Excluding food and energy, the CPI is also expected to rise 0.2 percent, showing no change in the trend.

The international trade deficit on goods and services is predicted to narrow to $35.3 billion in May after recording a $35.9 billion shortfall in April. This month, economists are looking for a slightly faster pace of export growth than import growth. (Forecast range: $-36.2 to $-34.5 billion)

Economists are predicting a federal budget surplus of $25 billion for the month of June. This would be the smallest monthly surplus for June since fiscal year 1995 when the surplus was $12.8 billion. Since fiscal year 1996, the June surplus averaged $46.9 billion. This low surplus is in line with comments made by the OMB director last week which indicated that revenues have posted the largest yearly drop since 1955 thus far in fiscal year 2002.