Looking Ahead: Week of July 1 to July 5

Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Monday

Economists expect that the ISM manufacturing index will dip to 55.5 in June from a level of 55.7 in May. Economists often use the NAPM-Chicago index to predict the ISM index, although the movements in the latter are generally not as dramatic as the monthly changes in the former. Since the ISM index didn’t rise as much as the NAPM-Chicago in May, it is not likely to fall as much in June. (Forecast range: 54.5 to 57)

Construction spending is expected to edge up 0.3 percent in May after inching up 0.2 percent in April. The nonresidential market is not as strong as residential housing. (Forecast range: -0.5 to 1 percent)

Tuesday

Domestic auto sales should rise to a 6.1 million-unit rate in June after falling back to a 5.7 million-unit rate in May. (Forecast range: 5.7 to 6.2 million-unit rate) At the same time, economists are predicting that domestic light truck sales will increase to a 7.2 million-unit rate in June after falling to a 6.8 million-unit rate in May. (Forecast range: 7.1 to 7.6 million-unit rate)

Wednesday

Factory orders are expected to record a modest 0.5 percent rise in May after gaining 0.6 percent in April. This reflects a modest gain in durable and nondurable goods. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 1.0 percent)

Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will rise 2,000 in the week ended June 29 from last week’s level of 388,000. Generally, economists associate levels below 400,000 as consistent with moderate gains in nonfarm payrolls. (Forecast range: -5,000 to +12,000)

Friday

The consensus forecast shows that nonfarm payrolls will post a 75,000 increase in June, slightly better than the 41,000 gain recorded in May. (Forecast range: 0 to 150,000) This incorporates a 12,000 drop in factory payrolls. (Forecast range: -15,000 to 10,000) At the same time, the civilian unemployment rate is predicted to tick up to 5.9 percent in June from 5.8 percent in May. Such a small rise is not considered significant by the statistical agency and basically suggests that labor conditions are about unchanged.

Economists expect that hourly earnings will increase 0.2 percent in June, the same as last month. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.3 percent) The average workweek should remain unchanged at 34.2 hours. (Forecast range: 34.2 to 34.3)