Looking Ahead: Week of July 2 to July 6
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Monday
The market consensus shows that personal income rose 0.3 percent in May matching the April gain. Slow employment growth generally translates into weaker gains for wages and salaries, the lion's share of personal income. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.4 percent) Personal consumption expenditures are expected to post a 0.4 percent gain in May, also matching the previous month's rise. This is partly based on the retail sales figures reported earlier in the month. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.5 percent)

The NAPM Survey is predicted to inch up to 43 percent in June from a level of 42.1 in May. The expected increase is smaller than the actual rise in the PMAC Survey which tends to move in the same direction as the NAPM. However, the NAPM is usually less volatile on a monthly basis than the Chicago index. (Forecast range: 41.5 to 44.0) Analysts are looking for a drop in the price index in June to a level of 44.5 from May's 45.1 level.

Economists are predicting construction expenditures should edge up 0.3 percent in May, the same as last month's rise. The May report will incorporate annual seasonal revisions as well as some changes in methodology. This makes the forecast less reliable than usual. (Forecast range: -0.5 to 0.9 percent)

Tuesday
Factory orders are expected to jump 1.6 percent in May, reversing about half of the previous month's drop. This incorporates the 2.9 percent hike posted in durable goods orders. (Forecast range: -0.5 to 2.0 percent)

Wednesday
Fourth of July Holiday!

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to increase 12,000 in the week ended June 30 from last week's 388,000 level. (Forecast range: +2,000 to +27,000)

Friday
Economists are predicting that nonfarm payrolls fell 40,000 in June after declining 19,000 in May and 182,000 in April. (Forecast range: -125,000 to +75,000) A good chunk of the drop is due to manufacturing where payrolls are expected to drop 70,000. (Forecast range: -110,000 to +15,000) In the past several months, temporary workers have also lost a lot of jobs.

Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3 percent in June, the same as last month. This would keep the yearly rise within its recent range of 3.8 to 4.4 percent. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.4 percent) The average workweek is expected to remain unchanged at 34.3 hours. (Forecast range: 34.1 to 34.3)