Looking Ahead: Week of June 17 to June 21

Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Tuesday

Economists expect that the consumer price index will post a 0.1 percent hike in May after rise 0.5 percent in April. Energy prices are expected to be less of a problem than recent months. (Forecast range: -0.2 to 0.3 percent) Excluding food and energy, the CPI is predicted to increase 0.2 percent in May continuing the trend of the past several months. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.2 percent)

Market players will be closely monitoring housing starts and are looking for a 3 percent rise to a 1.60 million unit pace. Housing starts were probably overstated in January and February because of unseasonably warm weather, but could have been understated in March and April. In any case, overall activity remains healthy because mortgage rates are low. (Forecast range: 1.59 to 1.65 million-unit rate)

Thursday

Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will remain unchanged in the week ended June 15 from last week’s level of 390,000. Generally, economists associate levels below 400,000 as consistent with moderate gains in nonfarm payrolls. (Forecast range: -5,000 to +10,000)

The consensus forecast shows that the international trade deficit on goods and services will widen to $32.2 billion in April from a shortfall of $31.6 billion in March. Import demand is rising more rapidly than export demand. Even in our sluggish recovery, the U.S. is growing more rapidly than most of our trading partners. (Forecast range: $-33.7 to $-31.3 billion).

Economists expect that the index of leading indicators will post a 0.3 percent hike in May after inching down 0.4 percent in the previous month. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.4 percent)

The Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook survey is predicted to increase to 12.5 in June from a level of 9.1 in May. Any positive level confirms expanding manufacturing activity. This index is a good predictor of industrial production. (Forecast range: 11 to 15)

Economists predict that the Treasury budget deficit will run at $75 billion in May. Remember last month’s surplus was due to the fact that April was a tax payment month. (Forecast range: $-47 to $-83 billion)