Looking Ahead: Week of May 19 to May 23
Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Monday
The index of leading indicators has posted declines in the past few months suggesting that economic activity remains lackluster. In March, half of the indicators posted declines and half posted gains, but it still resulted in a 0.2 percent drop overall. In April, at least three indicators are contributing to a decline: the factory workweek, vendor performance and new jobless claims. Consumer expectations, stock prices, housing permits and the interest rate spread are pointing up. Most likely, the index will remain in the narrow range of the past several months.

Leading indicators Consensus Forecast for April 03: 0.1 percent
Range: -0.1 to +0.2 percent

Tuesday
The U.S. Treasury typically announces a federal budget surplus in April due to tax collections for the month. The surplus averaged $132.5 billion in April from fiscal year 1999 through FY2002. However, the collections were largest in fiscal year 2001. Last year, the surplus amounted to $67.2 billion. Given the drop in capital gains in the equity market over the past year, it is likely that tax receipts won't be as high as a few years ago. Most economists believe that the Treasury remains on track for a $300 billion deficit for fiscal year 2003.

Federal budget Consensus Forecast for April: $50 billion
Range: $35 to $53 billion

Thursday
New jobless claims fell 13,000 in the week ended May 17 to a level of 417,000 recording the third straight weekly decline. The three-week drop helped push down the 4-week moving average to 439,750, the lowest level in four weeks. With jobless claims persistently above 400,000, economists remain worried about labor market conditions, but the downward trend in claims is encouraging. Levels below 400,000 indicate that nonfarm payrolls are posting modest gains. As long as weekly jobless claim levels remain consistently above 400,000, the outlook for employment growth is not favorable.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 5/17/03: 420,000 (3,000)
Range: 400,000 to 435,000