Looking Ahead: Week of May 13 to May 17

Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Tuesday
Retail sales are expected to post a 0.7 percent gain in April after inching up only 0.1 percent in March. This partly stems from an increase in motor vehicle sales for the month. (Forecast range: 0.4 to 1.5 percent) Excluding autos, retail sales are predicted to post a 0.4 percent rise in April after recording 0.3 percent gains in each of the two previous months. This reflects modest gains in consumer spending. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.6 percent)

Wednesday
Market players are looking for a 0.4 percent hike in the consumer price index for the month of April, larger than the increases of the previous few months. This is mainly due to higher energy prices. (Forecast range: 0.3 to 0.6 percent) Excluding food and energy prices, the CPI should edge up 0.2 percent in April, about in line with the average for the past several months. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.3 percent)

The consensus forecast shows that business inventories are expected to decline 0.2 percent in March after posting declines of 0.1 percent in the two previous months. The inventory correction should be coming to a close in the next month or two and we are likely to start seeing increases in inventories. (Forecast range: -0.5 to -0.1 percent)

The index of industrial production is expected to rise 0.4 percent in April after increasing 0.7 percent in March. The total number of hours worked in manufacturing increased by a smaller amount in April than in March. (Forecast range: 0.3 to 0.8 percent) At the same time, the capacity utilization rate is expected to edge up to 75.6 percent in April from a level of 75.4 percent in March. Capacity utilization and industrial production tend to move in tandem. (Forecast range: 75.5 to 75.9 percent)

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will decline 6,000 in the week ended May 11 to 405,000 from last week's level of 411,000. It appears that the federal program of re-filings is winding down. (Forecast range: -11,000 to +4,000)

The consensus forecast shows that housing starts will decline about 1 percent to a 1.63 million-unit rate in April after decreasing 7.8 percent in March. While the overall level of housing construction remains healthy, it is likely that January and February levels were boosted by unseasonably warm weather conditions across the country. (Forecast range: 1.59 to 1.70 million-unit rate)

Market players are predicting that the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is likely to show little change in May (to 13.0) from April's level of 12.4. Any level above zero points to expansion in the manufacturing sector and indicates that industrial production is likely to continue to climb. (Forecast range: 9.0 to 18.0)

Friday
Economists predict that the international trade deficit on goods and services will widen to $32.5 billion in March after recording a shortfall of $31.5 billion in February. Exports and imports are both predicted to rise, but imports should rise more than exports, thus the widening trade deficit. (Forecast range: $-30.5 to $--34.2 billion)

Market players will be looking for the preliminary mid-month reading on the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index to remain unchanged at April's level of 93. (Forecast range: 91 to 95)