Looking Ahead: Week of May 14 to May 18, 2001
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Monday
Business inventories are expected to edge down 0.2% in March, about the same pace as the previous month. Inventories have already moderated, but it is likely that inventories still have a way to go for the inventory correction to be complete. (Forecast range: -0.3 to +0.3 percent)

Economists are predicting that the index of industrial production will fall 0.2 percent in April, offsetting a portion of the 0.4 percent hike reported last month. Declines in payrolls and factory orders point to the anemic production figures. (Forecast range: -0.4 to +0.1 percent) At the same time, the capacity utilization rate is expected to edge down to 79.1 percent from 79.4 percent in March. The two series tend to move in tandem. (Forecast range: 78.7 to 79.5 percent)

Tuesday
The FOMC will announce their decision to reduce rates - or leave them unchanged - at about 2:15 PM. The consensus forecast is currently centered at a 50 basis point cut.

Wednesday
The consumer price index is expected to rise 0.4 percent in April, higher than the increases of the previous two months. This incorporates the higher food prices reported in the April PPI report. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.7 percent) Excluding food and energy prices, the CPI should edge up 0.2 percent in April, the same as March. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.2 percent)

The consensus forecast calls for housing starts to decline 1 percent in April to a 1.60 million-unit rate. This continues the downward trend of a few months ago. Overall activity remains relatively healthy, but mortgage rates are no longer declining - and in fact have turned higher in late April, early May. (Forecast range: 1.52 to 1.63 million-unit rate) Housing permits are expected to drop nearly 2 percent to a 1.59 million-unit rate in April. (Forecast range: 1.575 to 1.63 million-unit rate)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to rise 16,000 in the week ended May 11 from last week's 384,000 level. (Forecast range: +1,000 to +35,000)

The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is expected to remain below the zero mark. At -7.0, this index still predicts a decline in industrial production for May. (Forecast range: -2.0 to -13.0)

The Conference Board's index of leading indicators should inch up 0.1 percent in April after declining 0.3 percent in May. While this index is not predicting a downturn, it has remained soggy for many months. (Forecast range: -0.1 to 0.3 percent)

Friday
Economists are predicting that the international trade deficit on goods and services will widen again in March to $28.5 billion from a deficit of $27 billion in February. (Forecast range: $-26.5 to $-31.5 billion)

The federal budget surplus is estimated to run at about $180 billion in April. In addition to quarterly tax payments, this also marks the month in which most Americans catch up on annual taxes. (Forecast range: 165.0 to 189.0 billion)