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Looking Ahead


Looking Ahead

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday     5/3/02

Looking Ahead: Week of May 6 to May 10
Market News International surveys between 15 and 20 Wall Street economists each week for their forecasts of economic indicators.

Tuesday
Nonfarm business productivity is predicted to grow at a whopping 7.0 percent rate in the first quarter given the strong showing in real GDP and the less than stellar performance in employment during the first quarter. Healthy productivity gains allow wage increases without inflationary pressures. (Forecast range: 5.5 to 8.5 percent) At the same time, unit labor costs are expected to decline at 3.9 percent rate after decreasing at a 2.7 percent rate in the fourth quarter. (Forecast range: -5.0 to +0.4 percent)

Market players are looking for consumer installment credit to drop in March to a level of $6 billion after growing at a faster pace in the two previous months. Even though auto sales have remained at relatively high levels, they are down from the October peak, and should lead to a slower pace of consumer borrowing. (Forecast range: $4.0 to $9.5 billion)

Fed officials are expected to leave rates and policy unchanged at today's FOMC meeting.

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will decline 13,000 in the week ended May 4 from last week's level of 418,000. It appears that the federal program of re-filings is winding down. (Forecast range: -21,000 to +6,000)

Friday
Economists predict that the producer price index will increase 0.5 percent in April, less than last month's 1 percent spurt. Higher energy prices should continue to boost the index though. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.7 percent) Excluding food and energy, the PPI is expected to edge up 0.1 percent in April, about in line with the two previous months. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.3 percent)



Markets at a Glance   •   Recap of US Markets   •   The Economy   •   The Bottom Line   •   Looking Ahead


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