By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday
May 3, 2002

The unemployment rate rose to an eight-year high while nonfarm payroll employment registered only meager growth. Factory orders are sluggish, but the ISM manufacturing index still confirms an expanding manufacturing sector. Consumer confidence was down a tad, but motor vehicle sales rose in April. These factors are confirming the predictions economists made months ago - that the economic recovery would be modest. The FOMC will mull over this data when it meets next Tuesday. Chances are good that the Fed will decide to leave rates and the neutral bias unchanged.