Looking Ahead: Week of April 29 to May 3

Monday
The consensus forecast shows that personal income could post an increase of 0.4 percent in March after recording larger gains in the two previous months. (Forecast range: 0.3 to 0.5 percent) At the same time, personal consumption expenditures are expected to also rise 0.4 percent for the month of March, smaller than the gains in the past two months. In any case, these figures are already incorporated in the first quarter GDP figures and should not be cause for excitement. (Forecast range: 0.3 to 0.6 percent)

Tuesday
The NAPM-Chicago business activity index is predicted to edge down to 55 percent in April from the March level of 55.7. This still represents fairly healthy manufacturing activity in the Chicago region. (Forecast range: 54.5 to 8)

Market players are looking for a drop in the Conference Board's consumer confidence index in April to a level of 107.5 from the March level of 110.2. This would be in line with the slight dip in the already-report University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. (Forecast range: 105 to 111)

Wednesday
The consensus forecast shows that the ISM manufacturing index is expected to decline to 55 in April from a level of 55.6 in March. The slight one-month drop is not particularly meaningful (although a new downward trend would be worrisome). Any level above 50 percent still reflects an expanding manufacturing sector. (Forecast range: 54 to 57)

Construction expenditures are expected to remain unchanged in March from the February pace. Construction was somewhat stronger in the first two months of the year. Residential construction spending has outpaced the nonresidential sector lately. (Forecast range: -1.0 to +0.5 percent)

The outlook for motor vehicle sales in April is slightly better than the March pace. Domestic autos are expected to run at a 6.1 million-unit rate for the month, up from the 6 million-unit rate recorded in March. (Forecast range: 5.8 to 8 million-unit rate) Light trucks are predicted to sell at a 7.4 million-unit rate in April, up from the 7.3 million unit pace recorded last month. (Forecast range: 7.2 to 8.8 million-unit rate)

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will decline 16,000 in the week ended April 27 from last week's level of 421,000. It appears that the federal program of re-filings is winding down. (Forecast range: -21,000 to -6,000)

The consensus forecast shows that factory orders will remain unchanged in March after a better showing in the two previous months. Remember that semiconductors will also be eliminated from the factory orders series, just like they were from the durable goods orders report. (Forecast range: -0.8 to +0.8 percent)

Friday
Economists predict that nonfarm payroll employment will increase 50,000 in April, roughly in line with the March gain. (Forecast range: 15,000 to 110,000) Factory payrolls will continue their negative trend and could decline 15,000 for the month. (Forecast range: -25,000 to +5,000) The civilian unemployment rate is expected to edge up to 5.8 percent in April, after inching up to 5.7 percent in the previous month. (Forecast range: 5.7 to 5.8)

Average hourly earnings are expected to increase 0.2 percent in April, a tick less than the gains of the previous two months. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.3 percent) The average workweek is expected to remain unchanged at 34.2 hours. (Forecast range: 34.2 to 34.3)