Looking Ahead: Week of April 30 to May 4, 2001
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Monday
Personal income is expected to rise 0.5 percent in March, slightly higher than in the previous month. This reflects the slower pace of employment growth during the month. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.8 percent) Personal consumption expenditures are expected to also rise 0.2 percent for the month, slightly lower than last month. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.4 percent)

Economists are predicting that the Chicago purchasing managers index will rise to 40.0 in April from a level of 35.0 in March. Any level below 50 percent still reflects a contracting manufacturing sector. (Forecast range 38.0 to 44.0)

Tuesday
Economists are predicting that the NAPM Survey edged up slightly in April to 44.0 percent. Any level below 50 percent means that the manufacturing sector is still in decline. Any level below 43.5 percent suggests that the economy is contracting as well. One month below this key level doesn't spell recession for the United States, yet this would be the third straight month in which the diffusion index is below the 43.5 percent marker. (Forecast range: 45.0 to 50.0)

The market consensus is looking for a slight 0.4 percent gain in construction expenditures for March, about the same as in February. The strength in construction has come from the nonresidential sector. Housing starts, while relatively strong these past twelve months, have still headed south. As a result, the residential investment sector has generally been on the negative side the past several months. (Forecast range: -0.5 to +1.4 percent)

Wednesday
The consensus forecast is showing that factory orders were jumped 1.5 percent in March, after falling 0.4 percent in February and plunging 3.8 percent in January. Several key industries have posted declines for the month, including the volatile transportation sector. (Forecast range: 0.2 percent to 2.2 percent)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to slip 5,000 in the week ended March 30 from last week's 405,000 level. (Forecast range: -10,000 to +10,000)

Friday
Nonfarm payroll employment is expected to rise 25,000 in April, after dropping last month. This low increase reflects the continued drain of manufacturing employment. (Forecast range: -75,000 to +105,000) Factory payrolls are expected to drop 30,000 in April. This follows two straight months of declines average 95,000 per month! (Forecast range: -5,000 to -70,000)

Economists are predicting that the civilian unemployment rate will edge up to 4.4 percent in April from a level of 4.3 percent in March. (Forecast range: 4.3 to 4.4 percent) While the up tick is certainly reflecting looser labor markets, keep in mind that the jobless rate remains at its lowest rate in nearly two years!

Average hourly earnings are predicted to rise 0.3 percent in April after a 0.1 percent increase in March. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.4 percent) The average workweek is expected to edge down to 34.2 hours in April, from a pace of 34.3 hours in March. (Forecast range: 34.2 to 34.3)