Looking Ahead: Week of April 2 to April 6
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 - 20 economists each week.

Monday
Economists are predicting that the NAPM Survey edged down further in March to 41.5 percent. Any level below 50 percent means that the manufacturing sector is still in decline. Any level below 43.5 percent suggests that the economy is contracting as well. One month below this key level doesn't spell recession for the United States, yet this would be the third straight month in which the diffusion index is below the 43.5 percent marker. That could certainly point to a zero or negative growth quarter for first quarter real GDP. (Forecast range: 39.0 to 44.0)

The market consensus is looking for a slight 0.5 percent gain in construction expenditures for February. This would follow larger gains in excess of 1 percent in the previous couple of months. Until now, the strength has come from the nonresidential sector. Housing starts, while relatively strong these past twelve months, have still headed south. As a result, the residential investment sector has generally been on the negative side the past several months. (Forecast range: -0.5 to +1.3 percent)

Tuesday
The consensus forecast is showing that factory orders were down 0.2 percent in February, after plunging 3.8 percent in January. Several key industries have posted declines for the month, including the volatile transportation sector. (Forecast range: -1.0 percent to +0.2 percent)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to increase 13,000 in the week ended March 30 from last week's 362,000 level. (Forecast range: +3,000 to +18,000)

Friday
Nonfarm payroll employment is expected to rise 50,000 in March, after posting larger gains in the two previous months. This reflects the continued drain of manufacturing employment. (Forecast range: -30,000 to +125,000) Factory payrolls are expected to drop 32,000 in March. This follows two straight months of declines average 95,000 per month! (Forecast range: -10,000 to -45,000)

Economists are predicting that the civilian unemployment rate will edge up to 4.3 percent in March from a level of 4.2 percent in the two previous months. (Forecast range: 4.2 to 4.4 percent) While the up tick is certainly reflecting looser labor markets, keep in mind that the jobless rate remains at its lowest rate in nearly two years!

Average hourly earnings are predicted to rise 0.3 percent in March, less than the February gain, but generally in line with the average of the past few months. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.4 percent) The average workweek is expected to edge down to 34.1 hours in March, from a pace of 34.2 hours in February. (Forecast range: 34.1 to 34.3)

Market players are expecting consumer installment credit to increase $9.8 billion in February after surging $16.1 billion in the first month of the year. Consumer credit continues to increase rapidly even as consumer wealth has declined. If the jobless rate starts to increase rapidly, then consumers may have problems paying off their loans. (Forecast range: $6.0 to $11 billion)