Looking Ahead: Week of March 18 to March 22
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Tuesday
The international trade deficit on goods and servicesis expected to widen in January to $27.5 billion from a level of $25.3 billion in December. Both exports and imports should rise for the month, but economists are predicting that imports will rise by a greater magnitude stemming from the beginning of the improvement in economic demand.

Economists are predicting that the Fed will leave the federal funds rate target unchanged at 1.75 percent at Tuesday's FOMC meeting. However, expectations are that the Fed will shift away from its current risk of economic weakness towards a neutral stance that the risks are balanced towards growth and inflation.

Wednesday
The market consensus is looking for a modest drop in housing starts to a 1.64 million-unit rate from the 1.678 million-unit rate recorded in January. At least some of the January gain might be attributed to unseasonably warm weather. Actually, February was warm in the Northeast and Midwest as well, and could help sustain activity. (Forecast range: 1.59 to 1.72 million-unit rate)

Market players are looking for a $75 billion federal budget deficit for February. This would be about $30 billion larger than the average deficits for the same month in the past few years.

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will remain unchanged at 375,000 in the week ended March 16 from last week's level. Jobless claims can move erratically from week to week, but new jobless claims have headed down in the past couple of months. (Forecast range: -5,000 to +5,000)

The market consensus is calling for a 0.2 percent rise in the consumer price index for February. This would be in line with the gains of the past several months. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.3 percent) Excluding food and energy prices, the CPI is expected to rise 0.2 percent as well, maintaining its modest pace of the past several months. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.3 percent)

The index of leading indicators is expected to post a gain of 0.1 percent in February, lower than the 0.6 percent hike posted in the previous month. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the index is not as important as its direction. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.5 percent)

The consensus forecast shows that market players are looking for the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey to increase to 18 in March from a level of 16 in February. As long as this index remains positive, it reflects an expanding manufacturing sector in this Fed district. (Forecast range: 12.5 to 20.0)