Looking Ahead: Week of March 12 to March 16
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 - 20 economists each week.

Tuesday
Economists are predicting that retail sales rose 0.4 percent in February, about half as much as January. (Forecast range: 0.2 to 0.7 percent) Excluding the auto group, retail sales are expected in inch up 0.1 percent. Clearly, these retail sales figures reflect a very soggy consumer sector. Should these forecasts be realized, market players will feel better about further Fed easing. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.4 percent)

Wednesday
The consensus forecast is showing that business inventories edged up 0.1 percent in January, similar to the November and December gains. Greenspan indicated that an inventory correction was underway. This data reflects the correction. (Forecast range: -0.1 percent to 0.4 percent)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to decrease 5,000 in the week ended March 10 from last week's 370,000 level. (Forecast range: -15,000 to +10,000)

Economists are predicting that import prices were unchanged in February after decreasing in the two previous months. (Forecast range: -0.3 to +0.8 percent) Export prices are also expected to remain unchanged in February. (Forecast range: -0.1 to 0.2 percent)

The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is expected to edge up to -25.0 in March from a level of -30.5 in February. As long as it remains below the zero mark it still reflects a contracting manufacturing sector, even though it appears as though it were improving (to a smaller negative number). (Forecast range: -20.0 to -35.0)

Friday
Housing starts are expected to decline 3.3 percent in February to a 1.60 million-unit rate, after rising 5.3 percent in January. A good chunk of the January gain was attributable to special (weather) factors. This could be reversed in February. (Forecast range: 1.55 to 1.68 million units) Economists are predicting that housing permits will drop 7.8 percent in February to a 1.59 million-unit rate. (Forecast range: 1.54 to 1.64 million units)

The producer price index is expected to inch up 0.1 percent in February - much less than January's 1.1 percent hike. Higher energy prices will still contribute to the rise. (Forecast range: -0.2 to +0.3 percent) Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PPI is predicted to rise 0.1 percent in February, much less than January's 0.7 percent hike coming from special factors. (Forecast range: -0.2 to +0.2 percent)

Economists are predicting that the index of industrial production will decline 0.3 percent in February, the same as in January. A sharp drop in factory payrolls as well as a decline in the workweek point to this production decline. (Forecast range: -0.1 to -0.7 percent) The capacity utilization rate is expected to fall as well - down to 79.7 percent from a level of 80.2 percent in January. (Forecast range: 79.0 to 80 percent)