Looking Ahead: Week of February 18 to February 22
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Tuesday
Economists are predicting that housing starts rose 1.96 percent in January to a 1.60 million-unit rate. In reality, this reflects virtually no change in underlying construction patterns. Historically, lower interest rates have spurred housing activity and related purchases of appliances and furnishings to jumpstart a recovery. Given that housing activity has remained strong throughout the recession, the U.S. economy is not likely to benefit from a boost in housing construction going forward. (Forecast range: 1.53 to 1.67 million-unit rate)

Wednesday
The consumer price index is expected to post a 0.3 percent gain in January, more than reversing the 0.2 percent drop reported in December. This mainly reflects a moderate gain in energy prices, a sector that had posted declines for a few months. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.4 percent) Excluding the volatile food and energy components, economists are still predicting a 0.2 percent hike in the CPI, about in line with the average of the past several months. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.2 percent)

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will edge up 2,000 to 375,000 in the week ended February 16 from last week's level of 373,000. Jobless claims can move erratically from week to week, but new jobless claims have declined in five of the six previous weeks. (Forecast range: -8,000 to +7,000)

The international trade deficit on goods and services is expected to widen slightly to $28.5 billion for the month of December from a level of $27.9 billion in November. Exports are expected to edge down slightly while imports are predicted to edge up. (Forecast range: $-30.9 to $-27.0 billion)

The market consensus is looking for a 0.5 percent increase in the index of leading indicators for the month of January. This would be less than the 1.2 percent gain posted last month, but still signals a positive direction for the economy. (Forecast range: 0.3 to 0.6 percent)

The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is expected to post another positive number in February - a level of 15.0. This would be about the same as the January level; any level above zero represents an expanding manufacturing sector. (Forecast range: 7.0 to 20.0)

The consensus forecast shows that market players are looking for the Treasury to report a federal budget surplus of $40 billion for the month of January. Keep in mind that this incorporates quarterly estimated tax payments. (Forecast range: $35 to $52 billion)