Looking Ahead: Week of February 11 to February 15
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Wednesday
Economists are predicting that retail sales slipped 0.2 percent in January after edging down 0.1 percent in December. A drop in motor vehicle sales is contributing to the expected decline. (Forecast range: -0.9 to +0.2 percent) Excluding the volatile auto sector, retail sales are expected to increase 0.3 percent as gasoline prices edged higher. Declining gasoline prices in recent months hampered nominal retail sales, whereas the real (inflation-adjusted) gains have been stronger. (Forecast range: +0.1 to +0.7 percent)

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will decrease 1,000 to 375,000 in the week ended February 9. Jobless claims can move erratically from week to week, but claims have been headed lower over the past couple of months. (Forecast range: -10,000 to +10,000)

Business inventories are expected to decline 0.5 percent in December after decreasing 1 percent in November. The sharp pace of inventory liquidation over the past year will help stimulate production gains in months ahead, even with modest increases in demand. (Forecast range: -0.8 to -0.4 percent)

Friday
The market consensus is looking for a 0.2 percent increase in the producer price index for the month of January. (Forecast range: -0.2 to +1.0 percent) Excluding food and energy prices, the PPI is predicted to edge up 0.1 percent in January also offsetting the previous month's drop. (Forecast range: 0.0 to +0.3 percent)

The index of industrial production should post a decline of 0.2 percent in January. Factory employment fell in January, although not as much as in previous months. (Forecast range: -0.4 to +0.2 percent) At the same time, economists are predicting that the capacity utilization rate will edge down to 74.2 percent in January from a level of 74.4 percent in December. (Forecast range: 73.9 to 74.5 percent)

The consensus forecast shows that market players are looking for the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index to rise to 94 percent at mid-month, from a level of 93 percent in January. A continuation of the rising trend is friendly news for retail spending over the long run. (Forecast range: 91 to 95)