Looking Ahead: Week of February 12 to February 16
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 - 20 economists each week.

Tuesday
The consensus forecast is showing that retail sales rose 0.5 percent in January, a bit better than the December showing of a mere 0.1 percent gain. Auto and truck sales did increase smartly in January - probably because of more favorable weather conditions relative to the previous month when many consumers across the country were buried knee deep in snow. (Forecast range: 0.1 percent to 1.1 percent) Excluding the volatile auto group, retail sales are expected to rise 0.4 percent in January, better than the unchanged figure posted in December. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.9 percent) The weekly retail sales indexes are shown a small upward trend in January - but this could simply be due to the fact that consumers were able to get out of their homes in January.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is testifying before the Senate Banking Committee on monetary policy. This is in lieu of the semiannual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony that took place in February and July each year. This legislation ran out last year.

Wednesday
Business inventories are expected to rise 0.2 percent in December. This would be slower than the 0.5 percent gain recorded in November and the 0.7 percent increase for October. (Forecast range: 0.0 percent to 0.3 percent)

Thursday
Market participants are expecting new jobless claims to increase 4,000 in the week ended February 10 from last week's 361,000 level. (Forecast range: -11,000 to +9,000)

Very few economists predict import and export prices. In any case, the consensus forecast from this slim figure is calling for a 0.1 percent drop in import prices in January, following a larger 0.5 percent decline in December. Export prices are also predicted to fall 0.1 percent, the same as last month.

Economists are predicting the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey will improve mildly in February to a level of -26.0. In January, this index plunged to -36.8. Any level below zero indicates that manufacturing activity is contracting in this Fed region. This index is a good lead indicator for the index of industrial production. (Forecast range: -20 to -30)

Friday
The market consensus is looking for a 0.3 percent increase in the producer price index in January, higher than the average gains of the past two months. This reflects a slight uptick in energy prices. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.9 percent) Excluding food and energy, the PPI is expected to inch up 0.1 percent in January, smaller than the 0.3 percent increase recorded in December. (Forecast range: -0.1 to 0.3 percent)

Housing starts are expected to inch down to a 1.545 million-unit rate in January from the December level of 1.575. Lower mortgage rates are a boon to the housing market, even though other factors such as income and stock market activity are less favorable inducements to buy a new home than they were more than a year ago. (Forecast range: 1.48 million to 1.61 million) Housing permits are predicted to rise to a 1.52 million unit rate from a 1.49 million unit pace in December.

Economists are predicting that the index of industrial production will remain unchanged in January after falling 0.6 percent in December. Weather conditions were severe in December and curtailed hours worked. While factory payrolls continued to decline in January, the average factory workweek did recover a bit during the month. View the leveling off in January as a weather play; all manufacturing indicators are pointing to further declines here in the next couple of months. (Forecast range: -0.5 percent to +0.5 percent) The capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease 0.2 percentage points to 80.4 percent in January. (Forecast range: 79.7 percent to 80.8 percent)