Looking Ahead: Week of January 14 to January 18
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Tuesday
Retail sales are predicted to post a decline of 1.2 percent in December after dropping 3.7 percent the previous month. Keep in mind that a surge in auto sales boosted retail sales 6.4 percent in October; auto sales were strong, but still weaker in subsequent months as the impact of zero percent financing incentives waned. (Forecast range: -2.8 to -0.1 percent) Excluding autos, economists are predicting a 0.1 percent uptick for December. This would be better than last month's 0.5 percent drop, but is still pretty soggy. (Forecast range: -0.9 to +0.4 percent)

Wednesday
Economists are predicting that the consumer price index will edge down 0.1 percent in December after remaining unchanged in November. This reflects declines in food and energy prices, albeit not as steep as those posted in the PPI for the month. (Forecast range: -0.2 to +0.2 percent) Excluding food and energy prices, the CPI is expected to inch up 0.1 percent in December. (Forecast range: 0.1 to 0.3 percent)

The market consensus is looking for a 0.8 percent drop in business inventories for the month of November. Manufacturing inventories as well as wholesale trade inventories fell sharply during the month; only retail trade inventories for November are still to be reported. (Forecast range: -1.3 to -0.4 percent)

The index of industrial production is expected to post a slight gain of 0.1 percent in December after falling 0.3 percent in the previous month. It is too soon to call this the beginning of an upturn in this series, although the improvement in factory orders (if sustained) suggests an upward trend is imminent. (Forecast range: -0.2 to 0.5 percent) The capacity utilization rate is predicted to edge down a tick to 74.6 in December from the November level of 74.7 percent. (Forecast range: 74.3 to 75.1 percent)

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will jump 45,000 to 450,000 in the week ended January 12 after a 56,000 drop in weekly claims last week. It seems that workers in California may have delayed their applications to take advantage of increased benefits under a new law that becomes effective in the second week of January. (Forecast range: -1,000 to 80,000)

Housing starts are expected to post a decline of 2.1 percent in December to a 1.61 million-unit rate after jumping 8.2 percent in November. The level of housing is remarkably strong even at these interest rate levels. (Forecast range: 1.55 to 1.68 million-unit rate)

The market consensus is looking for the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey to record a smaller decline in January (-3.0) compared to December's revised level of -12.6. Any level below zero represents contracting activity, although a level close to zero would suggest a much smaller rate of decline. (Forecast range: -5.0 to +5.0)

Friday
The market consensus shows that the international trade deficit on goods and services is expected to narrow marginally to $28.6 billion in November from October's shortfall of $29.4 billion. This represents declines in both exports and imports, but a slightly larger drop in the latter. (Forecast range: $-31.2 to $-28 billion)

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is predicted to post a slight up tick to 90 in early January, from December's level of 88.8. Increased consumer spending often, but not always, accompanies rising confidence. (Forecast range: 87 to 92)