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Looking Ahead

By Evelina M. Tainer, Chief Economist, Econoday     1/7/02

Looking Ahead: Week of January 7 to January 11
Market News International compiles a market consensus that surveys 15 to 20 economists each week.

Tuesday
Economists are predicting that factory orders will record a decline of 2.8% in November due to a 4.8% drop in durable goods orders. This was a result of a reversal in aircraft orders. A recovery in the non-defense, non-aircraft capital goods orders measure after weak readings in recent months could indicate the beginning of a recovery in capital spending. (Forecast range: -4.3 to -1.2 percent)

Consumer credit is expected to post a rise of $5.2 billion in November, reflecting a soft rebound in revolving credit purchases at the start of the holiday season. Auto financing slowed, but was still strong during the month. (Forecast range: $2.5 to $9.2 billion)

Thursday
Economists are predicting that new jobless claims will decrease 22,000 to 425,000 in the week ended January 5 from last week's level of 447,000. It is important to remember that weekly jobless claims often fluctuate more sharply from week to week in the period between October and February when holidays are greater in number than from March to September. (Forecast range: -47,000 to +8,000)

Friday
The market consensus shows that the producer price index is expected to record a drop of 0.2 percent in December after declining 0.6 percent in November. Both food and energy prices are expected to remain subdued. (Forecast range: -0.4 to +0.2 percent) Excluding food and energy, the PPI is expected to inch up 0.1 percent for the month. (Forecast range: 0.0 to 0.2 percent)



Markets at a Glance   •   Recap of US Markets   •   The Economy   •   The Bottom Line   •   Looking Ahead


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