Indicator scoreboard
Germany - December ZEW economic expectations index, which records sentiment among financial experts on the economic outlook in Germany, fell for the sixth straight month indicating that recession risks remain. The index fell to 0.5 from 4.2 in November. ZEW said that the slight recovery in the stock market and the ECB's 50 basis point rate cut on December 5th had a positive impact, while uncertainty surrounding the German economy and heightened geo-political risks dampened expectations. The eurozone expectations index rose 2.0 to 27.1, the first rise since June. But views on current conditions in both Germany and the eurozone dropped for the fifth month in a row, deepening the sense of economic gloom.

October seasonally adjusted industrial production plunged 2.1 percent and 1.4 percent when compared with last year. Part of the reason for the drop was a larger-than-normal number of holidays during the month that were not fully accounted for by the seasonal adjustment. All industry output categories registered declines led by manufacturing, where output fell 2.1 percent. In west Germany, industrial output fell 2.1 percent after dropping 0.5 percent in September. In east Germany, production fell 0.9 percent after sinking 1.7 percent in September.

October seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus stood at €9.8 billion, down from a €11.8 billion surplus in September but up from a €8.6 billion surplus the previous year. Exports were down 5.6 percent on the month and up 2.3 percent on the year. Imports were down 2.9 percent on the month and down 0.2 percent on the year.

November wholesale prices fell 0.8 percent but rose 1.1 percent when compared with last year. Prices for energy and seasonal food prices dropped sharply. Excluding seasonal food prices, wholesale prices fell 0.6 percent but rose 1.1 percent on the year. Excluding oil products, wholesale prices fell 0.1 percent but rose 0.8 percent on the year.

France - October seasonally and workday adjusted industrial output fell 0.6 percent and also 0.6 percent when compared with last year. Manufacturing output declined 0.4 percent after falling 0.2 percent in September. Manufacturing output is down 0.8 percent when compared with last year. All manufacturing sectors declined with the exception of autos.

October seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus widened to €1.284 billion, up from €778 million in September. Exports fell 2.0 percent, continuing the slide since August to the lowest levels since the start of the year. Declines were posted in all sectors except autos, drugs and maintenance goods. Computers and telephones were especially hard hit. Imports plunged 4.0 percent accentuating the decline since July. Except for autos, declines were posted across the board, especially for computer equipment.

Italy - Third quarter revised seasonally adjusted gross domestic product rose 0.3 percent and crept up 0.5 percent when compared with last year. There were three more working days in the third quarter than in the second. Italy's data are unique among large eurozone countries in that they are seasonally but not workday adjusted. The third quarter's growth was buoyed by final domestic demand, with investments particularly strong. Net exports made a marginal positive contribution to growth, with both exports and imports posting firm quarterly rises. Inventories made a major negative contribution to growth.

October world merchandise trade surplus was €1.344 billion, compared with a surplus of €2.327 billion a year ago. Imports from the rest of the world rose 5.7 percent on the year, while exports abroad increased only 1.3 percent.

Britain - November seasonally adjusted producer input prices plummeted 3.4 percent and were down 0.9 percent when compared with last year. Input prices fell at their fastest rate for nearly two years, dragged lower by a plunge in the price of crude oil. Crude oil prices fell 13.7 percent on the month in November, but rose 13.3 percent on the year. Offsetting the decline in crude prices was a 4.1 percent monthly rise in the price of fuel. Non-seasonally adjusted output prices fell 0.2 percent but were up 1.2 percent on the year. Output prices were depressed by a drop in petroleum products prices. Seasonally adjusted core output prices, which exclude food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum, rose 0.1 percent on the month and by 0.6 percent on the year.

October global merchandise trade deficit widened to Stg3.556 billion from Stg2.736 billion in the previous month. The value of exports fell 2.7 percent while import values rose 1.1 percent. In volume terms, global goods exports fell 4.4 percent on the month and imports rose 1.8 percent. The underlying deficit, which excludes oil and erratic items, widened sharply to Stg3.569 billion from Stg3.06 billion previously. The bigger deficit reflected larger trade deficits with both EU and non-EU countries.

Asia
Australia - November seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 6.1 percent from 6.0 percent in October. The number of employed climbed by 60,400. The seasonally adjusted workforce participation rate, or the proportion of working-age persons at work or actively seeking work, rose to 63.8 percent from 63.4 percent in October. The total number of people employed was 9.42 million compared with 9.36 million in October. The number of people in full-time work rose 57,300 to 6.73 million in November, from 6.67 million in October. The number of people in part-time work rose 3,100 to 2.69 million in November.

Japan - Third quarter seasonally adjusted gross domestic product growth was revised to 0.8 percent from 0.7 percent in the second quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than half of the economy, grew 1 percent, more than an initial estimate of a 0.8 percent gain. Exports grew 0.6 percent in the third quarter, more than the earlier estimate of a 0.5 percent gain and less than the second quarter's 5.9 percent expansion. Capital spending fell a revised 0.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with a gain of 0.3 percent in the second quarter.

October core machinery orders fell 4.1 percent, partly offsetting September's rise. The drop came after core orders rose 12.7 percent in September and fell 13.6 percent in August. Core machinery orders exclude those from electric power companies and those for ships, which are often a source of volatility in the overall data due to their large sizes. Unadjusted core orders were up 1.9 percent in October from a year earlier.

October seasonally adjusted current account surplus widened to ¥1.17 trillion ($9.4 billion) from ¥1 trillion in September. Imports fell 3.2 percent from September while exports rose 3.2 percent. From a year earlier, the current account surplus rose 24 percent to ¥936 billion.

December "Tankan" survey for big manufacturers improved to minus 9 from minus 14 in the September survey, marking the third straight quarter of improvement. The indexes measure the percentage of companies saying business conditions are good minus the percentage saying things are bad and ignores so-so responses. December's negative reading means pessimists still outnumber optimists. Sentiment among non-manufacturers, whose fate is tied to the home economy, worsened with the index falling to minus 16 from September's minus 13. Among small firms, manufacturing sentiment rose slightly to minus 33 from minus 37 in September.

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