Now that the U.S. holiday is over, market players will raise central bank watching to a fever pitch. This is particularly true in Europe where odds of a European Central Bank interest rate cut on Thursday have risen given the sad state of the EMU economy. Analysts think that an ECB interest rate cut on December 5th has become highly likely - but it would be wrong to view a move as a done deal, as obstacles could still arise that would cause the central bank to think twice. Specifically, a dramatic turn for the worse in the Iraq crisis or new calls by European politicians on the ECB to ease could be enough to tip a delicate balance at the policy debate against a rate cut. The ECB's key interest rate is currently 3.25 percent. Elsewhere, central bank meetings are scheduled for Canada, Britain and Australia. It is expected that all three will leave rates on hold at 2.75 percent, 4.0 percent and 4.75 percent, respectively. Only the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia have raised rates in 2002 because of strong growth.

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