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By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday, October 28, 2002

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EMU - August seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus with the rest of the world was €9.9 billion, up from the €8.3 billion July surplus. Exports rose 5 percent while imports were up 3 percent.

Germany - September seasonally adjusted producer prices rose 0.1 percent but fell 0.9 percent when compared with last year. Non-seasonally adjusted producer prices rose 0.2 percent on the month entirely due to higher energy prices which rose 0.7 percent. Excluding energy prices, the PPI fell 0.1 percent but rose 0.4 percent on the year.

France - September seasonally and calendar adjusted consumer spending on manufactured goods fell 1.2 percent but was up 1.5 percent when compared with last year. Declining household durables and clothing sales offset a rebound in car sales. Despite the sharp decline, average consumer spending still rose 0.9 percent in the third quarter, up from a gain of 0.8 percent in the second quarter. Excluding autos, auto parts and pharmaceuticals, third-quarter consumer spending jumped 1.7 percent after a 0.7 percent gain in the second quarter. Auto sales bounced back 5.1 percent, offsetting a like-sized decline in August, but were still down 2.5 percent on the year.

Italy - August industrial orders declined 2.5 percent when compared with last year after jumping 9.4 percent in July. Domestic orders dropped 4.9 percent but foreign orders climbed 0.5 percent. Domestic orders account for around 62 percent of the overall index, with foreign orders making up the remainder. August data are not considered a reliable gauge for the manufacturing sector, as most industrial plants are closed for the summer break.

September merchandise trade balance with non-EU countries rose to €730 million compared with a surplus of just €77 million a year earlier. Non-EU exports rose 6.1 percent while imports fell 1.0 percent. Exports were boosted by the re-export of planes to China, which are shipped to Italy to be worked on and then returned to China.

Britain - Third quarter CBI survey of business optimism fell to minus 19 percent from plus 4 percent in July. The monthly survey for October showed a further deterioration in orders, falling from minus 29 percent in September to minus 33 percent in October.

Third-quarter preliminary estimate of gross domestic product rose 0.7 percent and 1.7 percent when compared with last year. The impact of the Queen's Golden Jubilee reduced manufacturing output in June, and without this effect quarterly GDP growth in the second quarter would have been higher and, in turn, growth in the third quarter lower. The rise in GDP was driven by rapid growth in service sector output, which increased by 0.8 percent on the quarter and 2.2 percent above levels a year earlier. Overall economic growth was supported by rising output in all other key economic areas.

September retail sales volumes rose 0.4 percent and 4.6 percent when compared with a year earlier. Sales were boosted by high turnover at department stores, in spite of a sharp fall in clothing and footwear sales. Non-specialized store sales, mainly composed of department store sales, rose 3.8 percent and were up 6.7 percent on the year. This was the sharpest monthly gain in this sector since February 1996. Offsetting strength in other sectors in the latest month was a 1.1 percent decline in clothing and footwear. Unseasonably warm weather during September probably accounted for the fall in clothing and footwear.

Asia
Japan - August seasonally adjusted tertiary activity index, which measures business at non- manufacturers and service companies, rose 0.5 percent and 0.3 percent when compared with last year. The tertiary index reflects activity in six industries - utilities, transport and telecommunications, wholesale and retail, finance and insurance, real estate and services. The recent gains can be attributed to a rebound from suppressed consumer spending during the World Cup. The all-industry activity index, which adds factory production, government spending and other components to the tertiary index and is used as a proxy for gross domestic product, rose 0.5 percent from the previous month. The tertiary index accounts for about 60 percent of the all-industry index.

September seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus narrowed to ¥609.1 billion ($48.9 billion) from ¥923 billion in August. Exports fell 2.3 percent and imports rose 6.6 percent. The trade surplus with the United States increased 3.1 percent from a year earlier to 698.8 billion yen.

October Tokyo seasonally adjusted consumer price index was down 0.1 percent and 0.8 percent on the year. Core consumer prices (excluding fresh food) were unchanged and down 0.8 percent when compared with last year. September nationwide consumer prices were unchanged on the month and down 0.7 percent on the year. Core nationwide consumer price index was also unchanged on the month but fell 0.9 percent from a year earlier, marking the 36th straight fall and underscoring that the nation remains in the grip of deflation.

Americas
Canada - September consumer prices were unchanged and rose 2.3 percent when compared with last year. Higher prices for women's clothing, student tuition and natural gas were offset by lower prices for fresh vegetables, traveler accommodation and air transportation. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.1 percent and 2.1 percent on the year.

August retail sales rose 0.2 percent following a 0.2 percent decline in July. Excluding sales by motor and recreational vehicle dealers, retail sales were up 0.3 percent in August. In constant dollars, retail sales were unchanged in August, following a 0.6 decrease in August.

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