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The Bottom Line

By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday, October 27, 2003

The pace of new economic information picks up this week and next, giving investors, who have been concerned about the sustainability of growth, more substance to digest. The most important release will concern U.S. third quarter GDP on Thursday, which is expected to show that the economy grew at a 6 percent annualized rate. Investors also will focus on the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting Tuesday. The Fed is expected to keep its key rate steady at one percent, but might adopt a more optimistic tone on the labor market.

In Europe, Germany's Ifo institute will release its business climate index, an important indicator for eurozone growth expectations. The Ifo index, which measures business sentiment in Germany, has risen for the last five months. The rising euro has hit German manufacturers particularly hard and has slowed overall eurozone recovery.

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow testifies on international economic and exchange rate policy before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on Thursday, and needless to say, currencies traders will parse every word. Snow is likely to be cautious in his remarks on currencies and will probably confirm the strong dollar policy. But getting traders to believe him is another issue.

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