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By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday, October 13, 2003

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EMU - July real workday and seasonally adjusted retail sales inched up 0.1 percent but were unchanged when compared with last year. Food, drink and tobacco sales were up 0.9 percent on the year. But specialized store sales sank 2.9 percent on the year. Sales were up in Finland, Spain and Ireland. The largest sales declines were in Germany, Portugal and Italy.

Second quarter real gross domestic product slipped 0.1 percent but inched up 0.2 percent when compared with last year. An upward revision to domestic demand was offset by lower net exports.

Germany - August seasonally adjusted manufacturing orders were up 0.6 percent but down 4.1 percent when compared with last year. Domestic orders sank 1 percent in August. However, foreign orders jumped 2.4 percent after sinking 1.3 percent in July. Foreign capital goods orders were up but domestic orders were down as were orders for consumer goods. West German orders were up 0.8 percent while they dropped 2.0 percent in the east.

August seasonally adjusted industrial output plummeted 2.5 percent and sank 1.9 percent when compared with last year. The large decline was attributed to the late start of school holidays this summer, which hit the reporting month to an "unusual" extent. The decline was led by a 6.1 percent drop in construction output. Manufacturing output fell 2.6 percent offsetting most of July's 3.7 percent increase. All subcategories fell, except for a flat reading for consumer non-durables. West German industrial output sank 2.8 percent on the month after jumping 3 percent in July. Production was up 1.3 percent in the east following a 0.3 percent increase in July.

September seasonally adjusted unemployment dropped 14,000. It was down 11,000 in west Germany and 3,000 in east Germany. The unemployment rate for all of Germany inched down to 10.5 percent from August's rate of 10.6 percent. The unemployment rates for east and west Germany were unchanged at 18.6 percent and 8.4 percent respectively. The Federal Labour Office said that the improvement since May was "primarily" due to the effects of its labor market reforms, which have shifted a considerable number of long-term unemployed workers off the jobless rolls.

August seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus inched down to €12.24 billion from €12.49 billion surplus in the previous month. Exports were up 1.1 percent but down 1.3 percent on the year. Imports were up 2.1 percent but down 2.1 percent on the year.

September wholesale prices rose 0.7 percent and were up 0.6 percent when compared with last year. The increase was due to higher food prices related to the August drought in Europe. Energy prices were down 0.4 percent. Excluding oil products, wholesale prices rose 0.8 percent on the month and on the year.

France - August seasonally adjusted industrial output sank 0.9 percent and was down 1.8 percent when compared with last year. Manufacturing output dropped 0.9 percent and dropped 2.3 percent on the year. The decline was the largest since transport strikes disrupted production in May. All manufacturing sectors were down led by consumer goods and autos.

Britain - August industrial production sank 0.9 percent and was down 0.9 percent when compared with last year. Manufacturing output fell 0.6 percent and 0.8 percent on the year. Output fell in nine of the 13 manufacturing sectors. Transport equipment output fell 2.9 percent due to a drop in motor vehicle production, while machinery equipment was down 3.3 percent.

August global merchandise trade deficit widened to Stg3.592 billion from Stg3.007 billion in July. The value of exports fell 5.2 percent while imports were down 1.3 percent on the month. Export volumes sank 5.8 percent while import volumes declined 1.6 percent. The widening of the deficit was attributed to a larger deficit with EU countries. The value of exports to EU countries plunged 8.5 percent on the month while imports were down 0.8 percent. Export volumes to the EU were down 9.1 percent while imports dropped 1.2 percent.

Asia
Australia - September employment rose by 14,700, all full time, following the creation of 80,600 positions in August. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent. Full time employment rose 43,300 while part time jobs fell 28,600. The economy has added 106,900 full time jobs since July. That's the largest two monthly gain in full time employment since 1988. The pick up in jobs in August and September follows job losses in five of the six months to July. The participation rate, a measure of those with jobs or seeking work, was unchanged at 63.5 percent.

Americas
Canada - September employment jumped 46,300 spurred by a 36,100 gain in full time work. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 8 percent as 49,000 entered the labor force. So far in 2003, employment has increased by 98,000 - all in full time jobs. Job gains were spread across several industries but manufacturing employment edged down 15,000 bringing 2003 losses to 77,000.

August merchandise trade surplus increased to C$5.2 billion from C$4.8 billion in July. Both exports and imports declined sharply because of the power outage over Ontario and parts of the United States. Exports dropped 3.8 percent while imports plunged 5.9 percent. The import decline was the largest percentage monthly drop since December 1991. The automotive industry accounted for most import and export declines, especially with the United States, because of reduced output in Ontario and some of the northern states due to delayed or reduced starts and continued slow sales of the 2003 model year. Exports to the United States dropped 4.6 percent while imports from the U.S. sank 3.9 percent. Canada's trade surplus with the United States fell to C$7.6 billion from C$8.1 billion, mostly because of automotive trade. Merchandise trade with non-US partners were in overall deficit, although the nation posted a C$18 million surplus with Japan, the fourth monthly surplus with that country this year. Canada generally has a trade deficit with Japan.

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