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By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday July 14, 2003

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EMU - Revised first quarter real gross domestic product edged up 0.1 percent and was up 0.8 percent when compared with last year. Private consumption and government spending growth were both revised higher, while the drop in investment spending was reduced. The decline in net exports was larger than originally estimated.

Germany - June seasonally adjusted unemployment fell by 33,000. This was the second monthly decline in a row and was helped by the late start to the summer school holiday this year. Unemployment fell 18,000 in the west and 15,000 in the east. The declines were reflected in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, which slipped to 10.6 percent in June from 10.7 percent in April and May. The unemployment rate was 8.4 percent in west Germany, down from 8.5 percent in May, while in east Germany, unemployment was down to 18.7 percent from 18.9 percent in May.

May seasonally adjusted industrial production sank 0.7 percent but managed to increase 0.2 percent when compared with last year. The decline was led by a 3.9 percent plunge in construction output. In west Germany, industrial output fell 0.6 percent after falling 1.3 percent in April. In the east, production fell 1.4 percent after dropping 0.5 percent in the previous month. Total manufacturing output also declined 0.7 percent, due to declines in consumer non-durable goods, basic and semi-finished goods, and consumer durable goods. Capital goods output bucked the trend, rising 1.0 percent - but this did not come close to offsetting the 3.1 percent dive of the month before.

June wholesale prices were unchanged and were up 0.5 percent when compared with last year. A drop in prices for manufactured goods offset a strong rise in seasonal foods and other agriculture products. Excluding oil products, wholesale prices inched down 0.1 percent and were up 0.3 percent on the year.

May non-seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus was €10.1 billion, up from an unrevised €9.2 billion in April. Seasonally adjusted exports were up 3.7 percent and imports were up 2.2 percent. When compared with last year, exports were up 8.1 percent while imports were up 9.8 percent on the year.

France - May seasonally adjusted industrial output sank 1.4 percent and 1.5 percent when compared with last year. Manufacturing output plummeted 1.7 percent and 1.3 percent on the year. All sectors dropped with the exception of autos. Sporadic transportation strikes in May accentuated the underlying weakness pervading industry. Many factories were closed during the month and there were three long weekends, which may not have been fully corrected by seasonal and workday adjustments.

May seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus narrowed to €338 million, as exports fell faster than imports. Exports plunged 7.5 percent while imports dropped 7.0 percent. Strikes and long holidays probably accentuated the fall, Customs suggested.

Britain - May industrial production edged up 0.1 percent but was down 2.6 percent when compared with last year. Manufacturing production fell 0.2 percent and was 2.1 percent below the levels of May 2002. Output in six of 13 manufacturing sectors dropped. The largest downward pressure came from a 1.8 percent decline in transport equipment output due to a 4.9 percent monthly decline in motor vehicle production.

May global merchandise trade deficit widened sharply to Stg4.11 billion from Stg3.695 billion in April. The value of exports fell 1.4 percent while imports rose 2.7 percent. The trade deficit with non-EU countries widened sharply to Stg2.061 billion from Stg1.405 billion. The value of non-EU exports remained flat on the month while imports rose 7.9 percent. The deficit with EU countries also was higher, with the value of exports down 2.6 percent and imports down 1.3 percent.

Asia -
Australia - June unemployment rate edged up to 6.1 percent from 6.0 percent in May. Nearly 28,000 jobs were shed after rising 29,000 in May. Full-time employment tumbled 54,000, while part-time employment increased 26,100.

Americas
Canada - May merchandise trade surplus fell to C$4.0 billion from C$4.6 billion in April. Merchandise exports plunged 2.8 percent to their lowest level in 19 months, as energy prices continued to fall and the agricultural industry reeled from mad cow disease. Exports fell in all major categories except automotive products, which remained flat. Hardest hit were exports of agricultural and fishing products, which declined 9.1 percent, and energy products, which were down 7.0 percent. A drop in natural gas exports accounted for one-third of the decline in total exports. Imports dropped 1.1 percent to the lowest level since the beginning of 2002. Even though the value of imports declined, companies actually imported a higher volume of goods, thanks to the increased purchasing power of the stronger Canadian dollar. Exports to the United States, which accounted for 83 percent of the total, fell 2.8 percent, the lowest level since October 2001. Imports from the United States fell 1.5 percent, accounting for most of the overall drop. The trade surplus with the United States fell to C$7.0 billion. Exports to countries other than the United States fell 2.9 percent. The largest declines came from exports to Japan, which fell 23.4 percent, along with exports to other OECD countries, which declined 9.5 percent to $1.0 billion.

June employment jumped by 48,800 jobs - spurred by a large gain in part time jobs, which jumped by 43,000. Full time jobs rose by 5,400. Employment rose in service producing industries and in public administration. However, manufacturing employment fell by 23,000. The unemployment rate edged down 0.1 percentage point to 7.7 percent.

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