Indicator scoreboard
EMU - May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.8 percent. The unemployment rate was 8.3 percent in May 2002. Of the nine countries reporting data, unemployment rose in two, fell in one, and was unchanged in six. Spain continued to show the highest unemployment rate while Luxembourg showed the lowest.

June Reuters seasonally adjusted purchasing managers’ manufacturing index contracted to 46.4 from 46.8 reported in May. This is the lowest level since January 2002. An index level below 50 signals contraction while above 50, expansion. The lower the index is below 50, the faster the sector’s decline. The rise in the euro continued to undermine new orders, which fell for the fourth straight month and at the fastest pace in two and half years.

June Reuters seasonally adjusted services business activity index contracted for the fifth straight month. It posted a 48.2 percent level. A reading of 50 is the breakeven point that signals expansion or contraction. The data confirmed the absence of inflation risks, as input prices were practically flat at a record low thanks to cheap oil and the stronger euro while prices charged fell for the 11th straight month. Germany remained the weakest country, while France contracted for the first time in 19 months.

April real seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 1.5 percent and 2.1 percent when compared with last year. Sales were boosted by the late Easter. Sales were up for all categories. Sales increased in all countries with the exception of Portugal and Belgium.

May seasonally adjusted M3 money supply increased 0.5 percent and 8.5 percent when compared with last year. The three-month moving average for the March-through-May period inched up to 8.3 percent when compared with the same three months a year ago. The moving average, which is the ECB’s preferred M3 measure, remains above the Bank’s 4.5 percent reference rate.

June flash harmonized index of consumer prices was up 2.0 percent when compared with last year. The increase brings the HICP back above the ECB's price stability definition of close to but below 2 percent. In May, HICP had dipped below 2 percent for the first time since February 2001. In order to compute its HICP flash estimates, Eurostat uses early price information provided by Germany, Italy and by other member states if available as well as early information about energy prices.

May producer price index declined 0.4 percent but increased 1.3 percent when compared with last year. May energy prices sank 1.8 percent, but still climbed 1.7 percent on the year. Excluding energy, the PPI was unchanged and up 1.0 percent on the year.

June EU Commission economic sentiment index inched up to 98.2 from 98.1 in May. Increases in both industrial and consumer confidence more than offset a drop in retail confidence and unchanged construction sentiment. Industry confidence edged up to minus 12 from minus 13 while consumer confidence improved to minus 19 from minus 20 in the previous month. Construction sentiment was unchanged while retail confidence slipped to minus 14 from minus 13 in May. Services sector confidence, which is not part of the headline index, was up to minus 1 from minus 2 in May.

Germany - May seasonally adjusted retail sales (including sales at auto dealerships) dropped 0.6 percent and 0.9 percent when compared with last year. Excluding autos and petrol sales, retail sales rose 0.1 percent and were down 1.5 percent on the year.

May seasonally adjusted manufacturing orders plunged 2.2 percent and 5.8 percent when compared with last year. The higher euro and weak world growth took the starch out of foreign orders. Foreign orders sank 4.8 percent while domestic orders edged up 0.2 percent. West German orders fell 2.0 percent while in east Germany orders plummeted 3.4 percent.

Italy - May producer price index dropped 0.3 percent but was up 1.6 percent when compared with last year. May’s decline was largely the result of lower international oil prices, which pushed down energy costs for the second month. Excluding energy, the PPI was unchanged and up 1.1 percent on the year.

Britain - June seasonally adjusted Nationwide house price index rose 0.9 percent and 19.2 percent on the year. Nationwide said that a weaker labor market would provide a check on house price growth particularly where affordability is stretched. However, the next movement in interest rates is still likely to be down, and any rise in unemployment looks modest by historical standards.

June Halifax house price index rose 0.6 percent and 18.8 percent when compared with last year. For the April-through-June three-month period, prices were up 21.9 percent compared with the same period a year ago. Halifax expects the rate of house price growth to ease even though prices grew faster than expected in the first half of the year.

Asia
Japan - Second quarter Tankan business conditions index for large manufacturers rose to minus 5 from minus 10 in the previous survey. The Tankan's sentiment indexes measure the percentage of companies saying business conditions are better minus the percentage saying things are worse. The headline index has been negative since March 2001, with June's negative reading meaning pessimists still outnumbered optimists. The improvement in sentiment was less pronounced among small manufacturers and non-manufacturers, who mostly do business in Japan rather than abroad. The sentiment index for non-manufacturers inched up to minus 13 from March's minus 14. Small manufacturers’ sentiment dipped to minus 28 from minus 29 in the first quarter. The Tankan — which means short-term outlook — surveys executives at 8,343 companies on their views of the economy, sales, profits, spending, employment and other business plans. The survey was conducted between May 30 and June 30.

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