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By Anne D. Picker, International Economist, Econoday     Monday, April 28, 2003

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EMU - February seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus with the rest of the world was €7.3 billion, up from the revised surplus of €6.9 billion in January. The surplus was down from €7.0 billion in February 2002. Exports rose 0.7 percent and imports were up 0.3 percent.

Germany - March seasonally adjusted producer prices climbed 0.3 percent and 1.7 percent when compared with last year. Energy prices were up 0.7 percent and 5.6 percent on the year. Excluding energy prices, the PPI was flat on the month and up 0.7 percent on the year.

February seasonally adjusted industrial production was revised to an increased of 0.2 percent from the originally reported decline of 0.7 percent. However, as part of its annual benchmark revisions, January industrial production was revised down sharply to an increase of 2.2 percent from the 3.2 percent gain originally reported. Industrial production excluding construction - the figure that Eurostat uses to calculate EMU industrial output - was revised to an increase of 0.6 percent from an initial decline of 0.4 percent. Manufacturing output also was revised up to 0.2 percent from a 0.3 percent decline.

France - March seasonally and calendar adjusted consumer spending on manufactured goods climbed 0.3 percent after a 0.7 percent decline in February. Spending increased 1.4 percent when compared with last year. Spending rebounded in all categories except for clothing and textiles. Household durable outlays were up 0.5 percent after dropping 2.5 percent in February, while auto sales bounced back 0.9 percent after a 0.7 percent dip in the prior month. Excluding autos, auto parts and drugs, spending was up 0.4 percent on the month and 2.4 percent on the year.

Italy - February retail sales increased by 3.2 percent when compared with last year. Food sales, which account for 43 percent of total sales, boosted February's increase "as people tend to build up their food stocks in uncertain and/or critical periods," ISTAT explained. Seasonally adjusted retail sales were up 0.4 percent on the month. ISTAT officials tend to place more emphasis on the year-on-year series in presenting the data. ISTAT re-based the index, moving the base year to 2000 from 1995 and increased the weighting for large retail outlets to 38.4 percent of the index from 16.3 percent.

Britain - First quarter preliminary gross domestic product inched up a mere 0.2 percent and 2.3 percent when compared with last year. The slowdown was led by easing service sector growth, which posted a quarterly increase of 0.3 percent and 2.6 percent on the year. Services had increased 0.5 percent on the quarter and 2.6 percent on the year in the previous quarter.

Asia
Japan - March seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus fell to ¥646 billion ($5.4 billion) from a revised ¥825.5 billion in February. For the fiscal year ending March 31, Japan's surplus rose to ¥9.68 trillion. March exports fell 2.4 percent but were up 10.3 percent on the year. Imports were up 2 percent on the month and 3 percent on the year.

February tertiary industry index fell 0.8 percent after January's 1.8 percent jump. The tertiary index reflects activity in six industries: utilities, transport and telecommunications, wholesale and retail, finance and insurance, real estate and services. The all industry index (which takes a reading of activity in the six industries that comprise the tertiary index combined with activity in the construction, agricultural and fisheries industries, the public sector and industrial output) sank 0.8 percent but was up 0.7 percent when compared with last year. This index is considered a close approximation for gross domestic product growth as measured by industrial and service sector output.

March seasonally adjusted spending by households of wage earners dropped 2.0 percent and 2.3 percent when compared with last year. The propensity-to-consume index, which measures the proportion of disposable income that households spend in the month, rose to a seasonally adjusted 74.3 percent from 72.6 percent in February.

March unemployment rate rose to 5.4 percent from 5.2 percent in the prior month. The number of unemployed rose to 3.84 million in March, up 50,000 from a month earlier as poor domestic demand forced many companies to keep profits up by restructuring and cutting costs.

April Tokyo consumer price index increased 0.4 percent but fell 0.1 percent when compared with last year. Tokyo core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, rose 0.2 percent but fell 0.4 percent on the year. March seasonally adjusted nationwide CPI was unchanged and down 0.1 percent on the year. Nationwide core CPI rose 0.3 percent but sank 0.6 percent on the year.

Americas
Canada - March consumer price index climbed 0.4 percent and 4.3 percent when compared with last year. The increase was mainly due to higher natural gas and fuel oil prices. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.3 percent and 3.6 percent on the year. The main factor offsetting increases in the CPI was a 5.8 percent drop in prices for traveler accommodation, due to reduced demand. Seasonally adjusted CPI was up 0.1 percent and 4.2 percent on the year.

February retail sales rose 1.5 percent and were up 5.2 percent when compared with last year. But excluding autos and gasoline service stations, retail sales declined 0.3 percent. Sales were up 3.9 percent in the automotive sector but clothing sales were down 2.0 percent while furniture sales dropped 0.7 percent. Sales remained essentially unchanged in the food, drug and general merchandise sectors. New car sales were up 4.3 percent, the largest monthly increase since November 2001, when zero percent financing programs were introduced. Gasoline service stations posted sales increases of 6.3 percent in February and 4.6 percent in January, boosted by higher gasoline prices.

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