The upcoming week offers a heavy menu of economic indicators in Europe and the United States. Analysts will be particularly interested in looking at new April data for signs of improving economic data. However, it could be too soon for the expected post-war boost in business sentiment.

Economists are struggling to calculate the total economic effect of SARS. Some have risked guesses, subtracting as much as a full percentage point off the predicted economic growth of many East Asian countries. But the main variable in every economist's calculation lies not in the number of industries affected but in how long the outbreak could last, a question that economists, like doctors, are at a loss to predict. And economists must guess how long fears about the disease will last.

David Dodge, governor of the Bank of Canada, spoke for many analysts assessing the economic effects of SARS when he said that the disease would have a "short-term impact" on the Canadian economy but that "an epidemic like SARS, if it carries on, is obviously going to be quite serious." The seriousness of potential economic fallout from the disease was illustrated last week when the Bank of New Zealand, in a surprise, cut rates by 25 basis points as a hedge against an economy weakened specifically by SARS.

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